4314 Ranger Rd · Abilene, TX 79601

$315,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · Land · 117 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction in Water Crest Ranch! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is located in the desirable new subdivision of Water Crest Ranch with easy access to ACU, Hendrick North, and the Lancium project. Located near Abilene’s north side shops and restaurants, this home features granite countertops, tile flooring in main areas, and cozy carpet in the bedrooms. The open-concept layout provides a spacious living area, modern kitchen, and split-bedroom design for added privacy. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath. Estimated completion: April 2026. Don't miss your chance to own a quality new home in this growing subdivision!

Key facts

• New construction
• Tile flooring
• Split-bedroom design

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-629/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,697/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,707 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-40,234
• Equity at exit: $47,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $25,703
• Equity at exit: $27,313

Cash invested: $88,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79601

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Rents YoY: 43.4%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,697 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,763

Max offer price $308,313

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,975
• Closing costs: $9,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 Ranger Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,749	$2.06	43d	1	0.02mi
4225 Ranger Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,749	$2.06	43d	1	0.03mi
527 Colorado St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,750	$2.06	43d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-31
   soldstatus
3. 2025-11-17
   listed $315,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,695
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$1,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,589
• − Management: −$2,589
• − Depreciation: −$9,190
• Taxable loss: −$6,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,444
• After-tax cash flow: $815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,050
• Household income: $53,631
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.17%
• Current HPI: 214.4372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 43.38%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-17 Listed $315,900 NTREIS