433 S Willow St · Ottawa, KS 66067

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1930 8,050 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quaint Rental on a large corner lot! Term Tenant. .. Rent could be increased. Currently Rents for $500/mo.

Key facts

• White picket fence
• Enclosed porch
• Tree shaded deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WHITE PICKET FENCE
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• TREE SHADED DECK
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 704 above-grade living area (public records); Not in a flood plain
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 1.5-story floor plan; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 76–100 years old
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood fencing; Shed(s); Corner lot; Located inside city limits; Paved road with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#125 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ottawa (town): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #128 of 169 in KS (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ottawa Sr High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #278 of 327 statewide, top 86%, 727 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 26% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ottawa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 85 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $100k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.34%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,607
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,547
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66067

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $833

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Canterbury Ct Ottawa, KS	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	929	$1,225	$1.32	23d	4	0.62mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $99,500 Active
3. 2020-10-30
   soldstatus Closed 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   Quaint Rental on a large corner lot! Term Tenant. .. Rent could be increased. Currently Rents for $500/mo.

4. 2020-08-08
   status Pending 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   Quaint Rental on a large corner lot! Term Tenant. .. Rent could be increased. Currently Rents for $500/mo.

5. 2019-11-06
   listed $55,000

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   Quaint Rental on a large corner lot! Term Tenant. .. Rent could be increased. Currently Rents for $500/mo.

6. 2019-11-06
   listed $55,000 Active 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   Quaint Rental on a large corner lot! Term Tenant. .. Rent could be increased. Currently Rents for $500/mo.

7. 2015-01-05
   soldstatus
8. 2014-11-21
   listed $32,500
9. 2006-08-01
   soldstatus $57,200
10. 2001-08-01
    soldstatus $30,876
11. 1999-05-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $2,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $3,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ottawa
• NCES district ID: 2000015
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,080
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8003
• State rank: #128 of 169 in KS

Livability — Ottawa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #6479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ottawa, KS
• City population: 16,146
• Population (ZIP): 16,146

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,777 people
• By 2030: 24,116 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 22,426 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 20,555 · -17.0%
• By 2075: 17,149 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 14,526 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 28.9% · R 69.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+38.4 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+30.4 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.97%
• Current HPI: 309.5576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+729.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $99,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-08 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-06 Listed $55,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-06 Listed $55,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-01-05 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-21 Listed $32,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,200 Public Records
• 2001-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,876 Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.