11450 Aires Dr · Amarillo, TX 79108

$164,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2003 5.06 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Scenic Views in Tierra Grande! Located in the quiet, scenic outskirts Amarillo, this five acre property offers a rare blend of expansive views and comfortable country living. This property is ideal for those seeking a peaceful retreat with plenty of room for hobbies, livestock, or simply enjoying the famous Texas Panhandle sunsets. The interior features an open concept layout that maximizes the home's footprint. The heart of the home is the expansive living area, complete with a cozy fireplace, perfect for Amarillo's crisp winter evenings. A secluded primary bedroom featuring an ensuite bath for a private owner's retreat. The first living area flows into a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and a connected dining area. This home also Includes a dedicated utility room. with a washer and dryer. The second living area provides a great space for family movie nights! Four generously sized bedrooms have ample closet space and share a convenient full sized bathroom! This one is ready for you to put your finishing touches on!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Ensuite bath
• Five acre property

Tags

• FIVE ACRE PROPERTY
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREA
• SECLUDED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ENSUITE BATH
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($994/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• River Road ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #389 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills El (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 351 students, 66% FRL); Willow Vista Eca (225 students, 75% FRL); River Road H S (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 402 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1,214 units permitted in Potter County in 2024 (650 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,419
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-11,753
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79108

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,511/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $130	+0% $83	+5% $36	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $22	+0% $83	+5% $144	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $125	base $83	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $164,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-04-14
    price $164,900 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Scenic Views in Tierra Grande! Located in the quiet, scenic outskirts Amarillo, this five acre property offers a rare blend of expansive views and comfortable country living. This property is ideal for those seeking a peaceful retreat with plenty of room for hobbies, livestock, or simply enjoying the famous Texas Panhandle sunsets. The interior features an open concept layout that maximizes the home's footprint. The heart of the home is the expansive living area, complete with a cozy fireplace, perfect for Amarillo's crisp winter evenings. A secluded primary bedroom featuring an ensuite bath for a private owner's retreat. The first living area flows into a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and a connected dining area. This home also Includes a dedicated utility room. with a washer and dryer. The second living area provides a great space for family movie nights! Four generously sized bedrooms have ample closet space and share a convenient full sized bathroom! This one is ready for you to put your finishing touches on!

19. 2026-02-17
    listed $170,000 Active 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Scenic Views in Tierra Grande! Located in the quiet, scenic outskirts Amarillo, this five acre property offers a rare blend of expansive views and comfortable country living. This property is ideal for those seeking a peaceful retreat with plenty of room for hobbies, livestock, or simply enjoying the famous Texas Panhandle sunsets. The interior features an open concept layout that maximizes the home's footprint. The heart of the home is the expansive living area, complete with a cozy fireplace, perfect for Amarillo's crisp winter evenings. A secluded primary bedroom featuring an ensuite bath for a private owner's retreat. The first living area flows into a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and a connected dining area. This home also Includes a dedicated utility room. with a washer and dryer. The second living area provides a great space for family movie nights! Four generously sized bedrooms have ample closet space and share a convenient full sized bathroom! This one is ready for you to put your finishing touches on!

20. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus
21. 2014-01-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,511 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 20.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,511
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$416
• After-tax cash flow: $1,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Road ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837260
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,718
• Composite: 34.81/100
• National rank: #5105
• State rank: #389 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 185,802
• Population (ZIP): 10,979

Population outlook (Potter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,296 people
• By 2030: 120,883 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 119,668 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 117,788 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 110,250 · -9.1%
• By 2100: 92,923 · -23.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Potter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.3% · R 71.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+41.9 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.97%
• Current HPI: 185.6329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $164,900 AARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $170,000 AARMLS
• 2023-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,511 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.