608 Willow Dr · Shelbyville, IN 46176

$192,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $190k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 4 bedroom 1 bath house in Wellington Heights neighborhood is now available! Move in ready. New paint, flooring, light fixtures and roof. This one won't last long at this price point. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• New flooring
• New paint
• New light fixtures

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.3% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#450 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Shelbyville Central Schools (town): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #148 of 301 in IN (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (147 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $192k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $192,246 (0.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
822 Berkeley	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (+1%)	0mo	$127,000	$109	85
904 Hemlock St	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,160 (+1%)	0mo	$217,000	$187	82
609 Willow Dr	0.03mi	4/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	8mo	$165,000	$156	78
729 Berkeley Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,229 (+7%)	2mo	$199,000	$162	75
513 Willow Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-10%)	3mo	$179,900	$174	70
1073 Fuller Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (+12%)	3mo	$232,000	$179	62
319 Roosevelt Dr	0.33mi	4/1.0	1,296 (+12%)	4mo	$135,000	$104	61
407 Eberhart Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	984 (-15%)	1mo	$194,900	$198	57
529 Eastern Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+9%)	10mo	$80,000	$63	55
911 Congressional Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	2mo	$198,000	$165	51
912 Delegate Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+8%)	8mo	$225,000	$181	44
116 E South St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,276 (+11%)	1mo	$169,500	$133	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,672
• Equity at exit: $28,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $19,113
• Equity at exit: $16,644

Cash invested: $53,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46176

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,082/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $192,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $393	+0% $339	+5% $284	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $263	+0% $339	+5% $415	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $388	base $339	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,125
• Closing costs: $5,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1021 Amos Rd Shelbyville, IN	3.0	1.5	1476	$1,635	$1.11	8d	1	0.28mi
425 N Harrison St Shelbyville, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,882	$2.07	2d	7	1.10mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $192,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $192,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 225-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,082 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,359 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,783
• − Property taxes: −$1,082
• − Insurance: −$962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$5,600
• Taxable income: $951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $3,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville Central Schools
• NCES district ID: 1810140
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,199
• Composite: 33.63/100
• National rank: #5402
• State rank: #148 of 301 in IN

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #16051

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, IN
• County: Shelby County · 28,782 people
• City population: 28,782
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,782
• Household income: $65,182
• Rent vs Own: 35.6% rent · 64.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 921.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,020 people
• By 2030: 44,962 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 44,126 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 42,110 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 37,131 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 29,714 · -34.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.1% · R 73.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.59%
• Current HPI: 227.6747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-03-24 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-04 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Listed $150,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,082 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.