5421 Upper 183rd St · Farmington, MN 55024

$234,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Townhouse · 45 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition $164/sqft · 17% below area Est $283k · 17% under $375/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just move into this clean, centrally located Farmington townhome. Everything has been freshly painted and new carpeting has been installed. The home features lvp flooring on the main level along with a gas fireplace in the living room. A new furnace and air conditioner have been installed for worry-free living for many years, and the wash machine is 6 months old. Easy access to south metro restaurants, shops, etc. Rentals allowed; restrictions may apply.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New carpeting
• Centrally located

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• NEW CARPETING
• LVP FLOORING
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Farmington — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#203 in MN, #4,269 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $186,231 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,407
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-59,223
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-78,089
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55024

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,530

Max offer price $186,231

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-255	+0% $-336	+5% $-418	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-419	+0% $-336	+5% $-253	+10% $-170
Rate	-1.0pp $-218	-0.5pp $-277	base $-336	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18388 English Ave Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1544	$1,999	$1.29	44d	1	0.07mi
17074 Dysart Pl Unit 17074 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,800	$1.60	10d	1	1.30mi
17040 Dysart Pl Unit 17040 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,700	$1.59	0d	1	1.34mi
19644 Escalade Way #906 Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $234,900 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $234,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 45 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $234,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 44 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Just move into this clean, centrally located Farmington townhome. Everything has been freshly painted and new carpeting has been installed. The home features lvp flooring on the main level along with a gas fireplace in the living room. A new furnace and air conditioner have been installed for worry-free living for many years, and the wash machine is 6 months old. Easy access to south metro restaurants, shops, etc. Rentals allowed; restrictions may apply.

5. 2026-04-17
   listed $234,900 Active 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (463 chars)

   Just move into this clean, centrally located Farmington townhome. Everything has been freshly painted and new carpeting has been installed. The home features lvp flooring on the main level along with a gas fireplace in the living room. A new furnace and air conditioner have been installed for worry-free living for many years, and the wash machine is 6 months old. Easy access to south metro restaurants, shops, etc. Rentals allowed; restrictions may apply.

6. 2008-10-14
   historical
7. 2008-06-18
   listed $107,900
8. 2006-10-11
   soldstatus $163,000
9. 2006-09-28
   historical
10. 2006-09-07
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$7,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,916
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with fresh paint and new carpeting. It has a good curb appeal and is centrally located, making it a good investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value.
• Both Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Install a new front door — A new front door can enhance curb appeal and security.
• Both Add some landscaping around the front of the house — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — Carpet can be worn and replacing it can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install a new front door — A new front door can enhance curb appeal and security. ↑
• Both Add some landscaping around the front of the house — Landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #4269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 37,287
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,287
• Household income: $127,280
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 288.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.47%
• Current HPI: 225.6882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-18 Listed $107,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-11 Sold (MLS) $163,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-07 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid