2405 Davis St Unit Model B · Tampa, FL 33605

$524,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 5,150 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. THIS BUILD QUALIFIES FOR DOWN PAYMENT ASST & UP TO 100% FINANCING * * PRE-CONSTRUCTION – Discover, an elevated home design perfectly engineered for the narrow lot profiles of historic Palmetto Beach. This coastal-inspired floor plan maximizes every square inch, offering a seamless blend of modern efficiency and waterfront-proximate living just minutes from Downtown Tampa and the McKay Bay shoreline. INTERIOR DESIGN & LAYOUT The main living level features an open-concept that create an expansive, airy atmosphere. The heart of the home is the functional kitchen, anchored by a large island providing substantial workspace and casual seating

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Large square island
• Stilt-home design

Tags

• STILT-HOME DESIGN
• COASTAL-INSPIRED FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LARGE SQUARE ISLAND
• FOUR-FIXTURE ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.12 acres (approx. 50 x 103); Asphalt road frontage; Water view: full and partial bay/harbor
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Pre-construction / projected completion January 2027; One story (multi/split levels); North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Glades and Bay Construction LLC (Model: The Low Tide Cottage)
• Exterior features: French doors; Exterior lighting; Cleared lot; Located in city limits; Flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Ice maker; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Aluminum frame windows; Blinds; Storm windows; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $524k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-984 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $388k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $382k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desoto Elementary School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 194 students, 78% FRL); Giunta Middle School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 857 students, 74% FRL); Blake High School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,537 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,878/mo this rent would consume 126% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($508k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,590 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $213,803
• Equity at exit: $472,061

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $662,625
• Equity at exit: $1,018,017

Cash invested: $146,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,748
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$655 /mo · $7,860/yr
• Insurance: −$218
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$814
• Net cashflow: $-984

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,124

Max offer price $381,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-622	-5% $-803	+0% $-984	+5% $-1,165	+10% $-1,346
Rent	-10% $-1,291	-5% $-1,137	+0% $-984	+5% $-831	+10% $-678
Rate	-1.0pp $-720	-0.5pp $-851	base $-984	+0.5pp $-1,120	+1.0pp $-1,258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,000
• Closing costs: $15,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2204 Grant St Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,995	$1.62	26d	1	0.15mi
2816 Corrine St Unit 2 Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2098	$4,200	$2.00	1d	1	0.44mi
2610 Durham St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,250	$1.15	16d	1	0.50mi
2409 E 2nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,787	$3.16	0d	19	0.85mi
111 N 12th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$3,250	$3.81	1d	1	0.93mi
101 S 12th St #410 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$4,600	$2.82	23d	1	0.93mi
1212 E Whiting St Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$6,500	$4.56	26d	1	0.96mi
1209 E Cumberland Ave #2103 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1338	$5,500	$4.11	19d	1	0.97mi
1209 E Cumberland Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1317	$5,500	$4.17	23d	3	0.97mi
449 S 12th St Tampa, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1866	$7,200	$3.86	6d	4	0.98mi
1298 E Madison St Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1135	$3,440	$3.03	1d	1	0.99mi
727 Cruise View Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$5,000	$3.30	5d	1	0.99mi
1227 E Madison St #902 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1590	$3,500	$2.20	26d	1	1.00mi
101 N Meridian Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.5	935	$4,878	$5.21	0d	35	1.02mi
2006 E 4th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	16d	1	1.02mi
1190 E Washington St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$3,346	$3.46	1d	10	1.05mi
1208 E Kennedy Blvd #616 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,600	$2.48	26d	1	1.07mi
1208 E Kennedy Blvd #515 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,850	$2.71	6d	1	1.07mi
2002 E 5th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,795	$1.69	6d	1	1.07mi
1120 E Kennedy Blvd #926 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,100	$2.95	26d	1	1.08mi
1120 E Kennedy Blvd #1216 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1599	$4,750	$2.97	26d	1	1.08mi
1120 E Kennedy Blvd #515 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,750	$2.62	26d	1	1.08mi
1120 E Kennedy Blvd #314 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,395	$2.28	17d	1	1.08mi
601 N 12th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$4,679	$4.90	0d	19	1.08mi
599 N 12th St Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$4,196	$3.86	1d	1	1.09mi
1011 E Cumberland Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1043	$6,984	$6.69	0d	26	1.10mi
815 Water St Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1299	$12,948	$9.96	1d	42	1.11mi
1120 E Twiggs St Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$3,405	$3.00	0d	33	1.13mi
1000 Water St #1201 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	2050	$16,000	$7.80	16d	1	1.15mi
1050 Water St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$6,029	$7.05	0d	40	1.16mi
1000 Water St #2202 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1868	$16,000	$8.57	3d	1	1.16mi
821 Normandy Trace Rd Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$3,100	$2.90	26d	1	1.17mi
2312 E 8th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,500	$1.76	13d	1	1.18mi
869 Normandy Trace Rd Unit 869 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$3,250	$3.04	19d	1	1.20mi
E 2nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1108	$4,515	$4.07	26d	2	1.20mi
500 Knights Run Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$5,192	$5.51	1d	18	1.21mi
501 Knights Run Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$3,300	$3.25	6d	2	1.24mi
450 Knights Run Ave #505 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1242	$4,500	$3.62	23d	1	1.25mi
450 Knights Run Ave Tampa, FL	2.0–4.0	3.0–5.5	3300	$15,550	$4.71	5d	2	1.25mi
800 Harbour Post Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$4,450	$4.45	0d	31	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $524,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $524,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $524,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $524,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $524,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   price $524,000 2606-char remark
7. 2026-04-26
   listed $549,900 Active 2606-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,352
• − Property taxes: −$7,860
• − Insurance: −$7,738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,723
• − Management: −$3,723
• − Depreciation: −$15,244
• Taxable loss: −$21,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B