624 Driftwood Ln Ln · Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1960 5,000 sqft lot $114/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! This home sits on a level lot in Cottonwood Shores and is ready for a complete renovation or teardown. Great opportunity to build new or maximize value in an area experiencing growth. Enjoy community perks including Lake Marble Falls access, a park, and splash pad. Bring your vision—this one is priced for potential.

Key facts

• Community perks
• Splash pad
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAKE MARBLE FALLS ACCESS
• COMMUNITY PERKS
• SPLASH PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.2% in Cottonwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1227 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $841 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.89%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,150
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -60.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
749 Driftwood Ln	0.41mi	2/1.0	792 (+1%)	19mo	$195,000	$246	63
833 Driftwood Ln	0.63mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	15mo	$239,000	$311	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $38,331
• Equity at exit: $30,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $97,379
• Equity at exit: $39,846

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1227
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,313/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $776

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $629	-5% $604	+0% $579	+5% $554	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $460	-5% $519	+0% $579	+5% $639	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $624	-0.5pp $602	base $579	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
723 Pecan Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	2.0	1.0	1027	$1,400	$1.36	46d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $89,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Investor special! This home sits on a level lot in Cottonwood Shores and is ready for a complete renovation or teardown. Great opportunity to build new or maximize value in an area experiencing growth. Enjoy community perks including Lake Marble Falls access, a park, and splash pad. Bring your vision—this one is priced for potential.

16. 2017-02-14
    soldstatus
17. 2014-04-15
    soldstatus
18. 2008-05-14
    soldstatus
19. 2005-07-25
    soldstatus
20. 1995-11-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,313
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $5,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cottonwood Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #8036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood Shores, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $89,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2017-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,313 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.