5309 Williamsport Dr · Williamsburg, FL 32821

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1980 6,699 sqft lot Est $395k · 20% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFERS -PLEASE PRESENT HIGHEST AND BEST. Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home nestled on a quiet street in the highly sought-after Williamsburg community of Orlando. Known for its pride of ownership and strong sense of community, Williamsburg offers a peaceful, owner-occupied environment where leasing is prohibited, creating a stable and tranquil neighborhood atmosphere. Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a bright and spacious floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The home features a generous living room, a separate family room, and a dining area conveniently located adjacent to the kitchen, creating the perfect gath

Key facts

• 6,699 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Unfurnished; Living area reported as approximately 2,081 sq ft (building area 2,200 sq ft)
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing entry; Residential, completed condition; Zoned P-D
• Construction: Block construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot under 1/4 acre (approximately 0.15 acre)
• Exterior features: Patio; Rear porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Other basement (finished/unfinished not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Sliding doors; Interior lighting; Patio and rear porch access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.6% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in FL, #608 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunshine Elementary (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 949 students, 41% FRL); Freedom Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,159 students, 44% FRL); Lake Buena Vista High School (1,714 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,765/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1840% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $935 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,541 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,940
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10807 Wheaton Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-14%)	22mo	$330,000	$176	56
10735 Leafy Laurel	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,896 (-13%)	2mo	$529,990	$280	53
4930 Gifford Blvd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,988 (-8%)	1mo	$360,000	$181	51
10106 Donhill Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-6%)	9mo	$372,000	$182	47
5520 Wildflower Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-14%)	24mo	$340,000	$182	40
5003 Gardengate Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-14%)	9mo	$315,000	$168	39
5518 Memorial Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-14%)	22mo	$398,925	$213	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.3% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,885
• Equity at exit: $96,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $25,303
• Equity at exit: $119,422

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32821

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,962/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,565

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $247	+0% $158	+5% $69	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $49	+0% $158	+5% $267	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $238	base $158	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5523 Westbrook Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$2,150	$1.35	25d	1	0.24mi
5033 Loyola Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1873	$2,350	$1.25	23d	1	0.40mi
5673 Parkview Lake Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,850	$1.67	9d	1	0.41mi
10502 Linger Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	2136	$2,600	$1.22	25d	1	0.46mi
5730 Parkview Lake Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1946	$3,300	$1.70	23d	1	0.54mi
4905 Goucher Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$2,600	$1.65	23d	1	0.77mi
6000 Paradiso Grande Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1305	$3,674	$2.82	9d	21	1.05mi
4126 Breakview Dr #30401 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,600	$1.80	25d	1	1.10mi
4804 Cayview Ave Unit 407 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	2097	$2,450	$1.17	16d	1	1.22mi
5024 Shoreway Loop Unit 1244708P Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$4,876	$2.45	9d	1	1.28mi
5048 Shoreway Loop Unit 1244718P Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$4,705	$2.36	3d	1	1.29mi
10107 Ancora Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$2,452	$2.25	4d	23	1.32mi
4801 Tidecrest Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	3.5	1600	$2,050	$1.28	5d	1	1.32mi
5037 Shoreway Loop Unit 1244717P Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$5,126	$2.57	9d	1	1.34mi
8000 Cool Breeze Dr #105 Orlando, FL	3.0	3.5	1746	$2,399	$1.37	25d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $315,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $315,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,962 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,962
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,655
• − Management: −$2,655
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$3,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$823
• After-tax cash flow: $2,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #608

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living B Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,161
• Household income: $69,348
• Rent vs Own: 68.3% rent · 31.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1840.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Current HPI: 300.2268
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.20%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,962 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.