15063 Fm 1414 · Newton, TX 75932

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1960 1.77 ac lot $143/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderfully well kept home in quiet area of Newton County. Located on 1.75 acres this country home offers the perfect get away dream. This open floor plan with all the extras is welcoming after a long day. The kitchen is farm country friendly with a beautiful view of the property. Morning coffee at the kitchen island that also offers extra storage. The kitchen also has a roomy pantry. The house offers 3 bedrooms and 2 fully updated baths. There is an extra space for office or weekend guest. The living area opens onto a beautiful deck overlooking the rear of the property. There is a covered walkway that leads to the garage. Call to see this lovely country home today.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Beautiful deck
• Roomy pantry

Tags

• 1.75 ACRES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• ROOMY PANTRY
• BEAUTIFUL DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-498 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,710 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.69%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $724,593
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -69.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $65,915
• Equity at exit: $174,567

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $215,285
• Equity at exit: $353,847

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,945/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $132,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-373	-5% $-435	+0% $-498	+5% $-560	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-597	-5% $-547	+0% $-498	+5% $-448	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-442	base $-498	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on marketlisting id $220,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-01-12
   listed $220,000 Active 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Wonderfully well kept home in quiet area of Newton County. Located on 1.75 acres this country home offers the perfect get away dream. This open floor plan with all the extras is welcoming after a long day. The kitchen is farm country friendly with a beautiful view of the property. Morning coffee at the kitchen island that also offers extra storage. The kitchen also has a roomy pantry. The house offers 3 bedrooms and 2 fully updated baths. There is an extra space for office or weekend guest. The living area opens onto a beautiful deck overlooking the rear of the property. There is a covered walkway that leads to the garage. Call to see this lovely country home today.

5. 2026-01-09
   listed $220,000 Active 674-char remark

   Show marketing remark (674 chars)

   Wonderfully well kept home in quiet area of Newton County. Located on 1.75 acres this country home offers the perfect get away dream. This open floor plan with all the extras is welcoming after a long day. The kitchen is farm country friendly with a beautiful view of the property. Morning coffee at the kitchen island that also offers extra storage. The kitchen also has a roomy pantry. The house offers 3 bedrooms and 2 fully updated baths. There is an extra space for office or weekend guest. The living area opens onto a beautiful deck overlooking the rear of the property. There is a covered walkway that leads to the garage. Call to see this lovely country home today.

6. 2017-04-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,945 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,081/yr (+$90/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,945
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,423
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $220,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $220,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2017-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,945 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.