184 Oak Common Ave · Nocatee, FL 32095

$5,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2003 9,583 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**BEAUTIFUL HEATED / SALTWATER POOL HOME** Price reduced to recent bank appraised value 7/2024. This home is located in Palencia Subdivision with endless activities to do for the whole family. When you enter the home through the Etched Double Glass Front Door you will notice a separated formal living and dining room that could be converted into a kid room / office flex space. The open concept main living area has tall ceilings and a gas fireplace with built-in shelves surrounding it. The master bedroom has plantation shutters on the windows, private access to the pool, separated double vanity sinks in the master bathroom with a garden soaking tub and a walk-in shower. The HEATED saltwater pool was installed in 2019 with a separate heater from the spa. There are 3 access points to the pool, one leading to the pool bathroom. The Spa is connected to the pool to help heat the pool as well during the cooler months in FL. Some other features and improvements to the home include a NEW HVAC system installed in 2023, the irrigation system has been recently inspected / tested, the Pool has been recently inspected by Red Rhino with a New Pool Filter and New reverse installed as well. Palencia offers endless fun for the whole family. Within the community you will find a Golf Course, Multiple Resort Pools with water slides and a splash pad. Love to work out and be fit then the stunning Clubhouse offers a full gym with all the equipment. Some other family fun activities are tennis and basketball courts, multiple playgrounds, a fenced in dog park, and a Boardwalk through Marshall Creek. The question you need to ask yourself is why you haven't scheduled your tour today.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 3 parking spaces (3-car garage total)
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property; Planned unit development (PUD) zoning
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 room total
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$533,930) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 682.4% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 13 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 72.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 682.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 2414.84%
• DSCR: 108.45
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $533,930
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Hannah Park Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,582 (+4%)	2mo	$550,000	$213	86
157 Oak Common Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,442 (-2%)	2mo	$675,000	$276	84
708 Toria Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,405 (-4%)	4mo	$630,000	$262	81
804 Cypress Crossing Trl	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,656 (+6%)	1mo	$625,000	$235	76
808 Cypress Crossing Trl	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,704 (+8%)	3mo	$639,000	$236	76
400 Central	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,541 (+2%)	1mo	$525,000	$207	71
153 Oak Common Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,251 (-10%)	1mo	$425,000	$189	69
713 Toria Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,223 (-11%)	1mo	$435,000	$196	68
800 N End St	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,495 (0%)	4mo	$465,000	$186	67
267 Sophia Ter	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,760 (+11%)	2mo	$1,005,000	$364	59
636 Battersea Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,403 (-4%)	6mo	$515,000	$214	56
26 Lakefront Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,794 (+12%)	6mo	$599,000	$214	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 125.48×
• Total profit: $174,267
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 261.97×
• Total profit: $365,354
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $2,817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
717 Cypress Crossing Trl Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	3.0	2632	$3,600	$1.37	14d	1	0.11mi
544 Market St St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	2450	$3,500	$1.43	23d	1	0.47mi
148 Augustine Island Way St Augustine, FL	3.0	3.5	3108	$4,300	$1.38	3d	1	0.84mi
148 Augustine Island Way St Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	3108	$4,300	$1.38	11d	1	0.84mi
36 Privado Ct Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.5	2737	$4,700	$1.72	3d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 303-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $5,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,466
• − Management: −$3,466
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $35,863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,607
• After-tax cash flow: $25,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.0% since first listed

64 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-08-15 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $660,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $660,000 realMLS
• 2024-07-26 Relisted — realMLS
• 2024-05-24 Contingent — realMLS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $679,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $679,900 realMLS
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $684,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $684,900 realMLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $689,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $689,900 realMLS
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $694,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $694,900 realMLS
• 2024-01-28 Price Changed $699,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-01-27 Price Changed $699,900 realMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $709,900 realMLS
• 2023-12-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $709,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $709,900 realMLS
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $714,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $714,900 realMLS
• 2023-10-03 Price Changed $724,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $724,900 realMLS
• 2023-09-21 Price Changed $735,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-09-21 Price Changed $735,000 realMLS
• 2023-09-14 Listed $745,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $660,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-08 Sold (MLS) $660,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-01-10 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-01-06 Listed $650,000 realMLS
• 2022-11-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-10-29 Price Changed $685,000 realMLS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $725,000 realMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $750,000 realMLS
• 2018-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $355,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-02 Sold (MLS) $355,000 realMLS
• 2018-06-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-05-25 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-05-25 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-05-22 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-05-19 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-05-19 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-05-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-05-04 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-04-02 Price Changed $369,000 realMLS
• 2018-03-06 Listed $379,000 realMLS
• 2017-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-01 Sold (MLS) $255,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-12-01 Sold (MLS) $255,000 realMLS
• 2017-11-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2017-11-02 Contingent — realMLS
• 2017-11-01 Relisted — realMLS
• 2017-11-01 Delisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-10-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2017-10-18 Price Changed $305,000 realMLS
• 2017-09-13 Price Changed $309,900 realMLS
• 2017-07-18 Relisted — realMLS
• 2017-07-16 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2017-06-23 Price Changed $314,900 realMLS
• 2017-06-14 Listed $329,500 realMLS
• 2017-04-17 Listed $305,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2002-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,305 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.