648 Burger Hollow Rd · Effort, PA 18058

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1957 0.88 ac lot $237/sqft · 51% below area Est $315k · 48% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sweet little cabin in the woods! Enjoy sitting on the front porch listening to the sounds of the creek! Perfect for vacation, full time or investment property. Located in a lake community, short walk to the lake. Freshly painted inside and out! Hardwood flooring! Low Taxes! Close to skiing, shopping and the local schools. Move right in!

Key facts

• 0.88 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road with road maintenance agreement; Private road frontage; Lot size approximately 0.88 acres; Subdivision: Hemlock Lake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (paid annually); Association amenities include clubhouse and picnic area; Association fee includes snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; 8 open parking spaces (total 8 spaces)
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Residential property; No common walls; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible entrance; Accessible hallway(s)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Construction material: Other
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front covered porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Private entrance; Private yard; Front covered porch; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main level laundry; Accessible washer/dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($50/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $165k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,476 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,308
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -47.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $50,449
• Equity at exit: $106,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $147,736
• Equity at exit: $195,142

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,225/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    listed $170,000 Active 763-char remark
19. 2026-04-15
    listed $179,900 Active
20. 2021-03-17
    soldstatus $69,570
21. 2018-01-11
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Sweet little cabin in the woods! Enjoy sitting on the front porch listening to the sounds of the creek! Perfect for vacation, full time or investment property. Located in a lake community, short walk to the lake. Freshly painted inside and out! Hardwood flooring! Low Taxes! Close to skiing, shopping and the local schools. Move right in!

22. 2018-01-11
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Sweet little cabin in the woods! Enjoy sitting on the front porch listening to the sounds of the creek! Perfect for vacation, full time or investment property. Located in a lake community, short walk to the lake. Freshly painted inside and out! Hardwood flooring! Low Taxes! Close to skiing, shopping and the local schools. Move right in!

23. 2017-10-18
    listed $55,000

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Sweet little cabin in the woods! Enjoy sitting on the front porch listening to the sounds of the creek! Perfect for vacation, full time or investment property. Located in a lake community, short walk to the lake. Freshly painted inside and out! Hardwood flooring! Low Taxes! Close to skiing, shopping and the local schools. Move right in!

24. 2017-10-18
    listed $55,000

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Sweet little cabin in the woods! Enjoy sitting on the front porch listening to the sounds of the creek! Perfect for vacation, full time or investment property. Located in a lake community, short walk to the lake. Freshly painted inside and out! Hardwood flooring! Low Taxes! Close to skiing, shopping and the local schools. Move right in!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,225 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,416 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,225
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Effort

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #2576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $165,000 PMAR
• 2026-05-09 Listed $170,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $179,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $69,570 Public Records
• 2018-01-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 PMAR
• 2018-01-11 Sold (MLS) $50,000 GLVRMLS
• 2017-10-18 Listed $55,000 PMAR
• 2017-10-18 Listed $55,000 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,225 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.