57 Slippery Hill Ln · Curlew Lake, WA 99166

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 1985 7.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 1/2 story home w/ propane and electric lights. Some trim and wall work needed. TLC and you'll have a nice home on a lottle over 7acres. Bank owned. Submit offers. Call L. A. for combo.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Newer siding
• 7.65 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS INCOMPLETE SUN ROOM
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-749/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#512 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Republic School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #193 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Republic Elementary School (170 students, 76% FRL); Republic Junior High (55 students, 76% FRL); Republic Senior High School (107 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 50% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Ferry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Ferry County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $189k implies a 563% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,960 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $23,226
• Equity at exit: $89,781

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $82,687
• Equity at exit: $142,214

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99166

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $177,979

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-9	+0% $-62	+5% $-116	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-116	+0% $-62	+5% $-8	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-14	base $-62	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 116 DOM
18. 2026-04-11
    price $195,000
19. 2026-02-04
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2025-07-17
    price $199,999
21. 2025-02-28
    price $225,000
22. 2002-10-01
    soldstatus $28,500 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    2 1/2 story home w/ propane and electric lights. Some trim and wall work needed. TLC and you'll have a nice home on a lottle over 7acres. Bank owned. Submit offers. Call L. A. for combo.

23. 2002-09-06
    historical
24. 2002-08-20
    listed $28,500 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    2 1/2 story home w/ propane and electric lights. Some trim and wall work needed. TLC and you'll have a nice home on a lottle over 7acres. Bank owned. Submit offers. Call L. A. for combo.

25. 2002-03-06
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$958/yr (+$80/mo · 107.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$988
• After-tax cash flow: $240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic School District
• NCES district ID: 5307260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,081
• Composite: 39.7/100
• National rank: #8019
• State rank: #193 of 291 in WA

Livability — Curlew Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #512
• US rank: #21090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,879

Population outlook (Ferry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,408 people
• By 2030: 7,210 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 6,714 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 6,331 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 5,599 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 5,057 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ferry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.1% · R 65.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+29.4 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Current HPI: 170.5617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+255.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $199,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $199,999 NEWMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $225,000 NEWMLS
• 2002-10-01 Sold (MLS) $28,500 NEWMLS
• 2002-09-06 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-20 Listed $28,500 NEWMLS
• 2002-03-06 Listed $54,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $894 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.