8561 Fremont Rd · Panama City, FL 32466

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1978 0.76 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A FORECLOSURE BEING SOLD AS IS, NEEDS WORK. PRICED TO SELL

Key facts

• 0.76 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-story layout (all listed rooms on the first level)
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 167 x 287 x 180 x 202

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first level (approx. 14 x 13)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first level (including primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-602/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $235k implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,904 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $124,792
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $370,001
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32466

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $226,143

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $237,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $237,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,000 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,000 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $237,000 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    status Active
19. 2026-02-09
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-27
    price $237,000
21. 2025-12-17
    price $239,000
22. 2025-12-02
    price $257,000
23. 2025-10-30
    price $265,000
24. 2025-10-27
    price $280,000
25. 2025-10-13
    price $283,000
26. 2025-09-25
    listed $285,000 Active
27. 2024-04-27
    historical
28. 2024-04-15
    price $67,000
29. 2024-03-26
    price $69,000
30. 2024-03-21
    price $71,000
31. 2024-03-15
    price $73,000
32. 2024-03-06
    price $75,000
33. 2024-02-21
    price $78,000
34. 2024-02-16
    price $80,000
35. 2024-02-08
    price $83,000
36. 2024-01-26
    price $86,000
37. 2024-01-23
    price $90,000
38. 2024-01-17
    price $93,000
39. 2024-01-08
    price $98,000
40. 2024-01-04
    price $100,000
41. 2023-12-19
    price $105,000
42. 2023-11-29
    price $110,000
43. 2023-11-20
    price $120,000
44. 2023-11-15
    price $130,000
45. 2023-11-10
    price $140,000
46. 2023-11-03
    price $150,000
47. 2023-11-01
    price $160,000
48. 2023-10-27
    listed $175,000 Active
49. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $57,000
50. 2009-09-15
    soldstatus $42,500 66-char remark

    Show marketing remark (66 chars)

    THIS IS A FORECLOSURE BEING SOLD AS IS, NEEDS WORK. PRICED TO SELL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$2,678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 91,445
• Population (ZIP): 5,837

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.68%
• Current HPI: 274.7988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+432.6% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $237,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $239,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $257,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $265,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $280,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $283,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $285,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $67,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $69,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $71,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $73,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $75,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $78,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Price Changed $80,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $83,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $86,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Price Changed $90,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $93,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $98,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $100,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-12-19 Price Changed $105,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $110,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $120,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $130,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $140,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $150,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $160,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-27 Listed $175,000 CPARMLS
• 2009-09-15 Sold (MLS) $42,500 CPARMLS
• 2009-04-20 Listed $47,500 CPARMLS
• 2006-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2006-11-08 Sold (MLS) $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-06-07 Listed $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-04-29 Sold (MLS) $129,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-10-30 Listed $129,900 CPARMLS
• 2002-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,423 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.