1224 RT 9G · Haviland, NY 12538

$625,000

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1956 0.27 ac lot Est $653k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well maintain multifamily home this multifamily house has three units seven bedrooms and three bathrooms first unit three bedrooms one bath second unit two bedroom bedrooms, one bath third unit two bedrooms one bath

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax year 2025

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Sewer available; Trash collection (private); Water available
• Home design: Triplex
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/1ba + 2×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-140/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $551k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $480k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph R Smith School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 340 students, 54% FRL); Haviland Middle School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #413 of 729 statewide, top 57%, 759 students, 59% FRL); Franklin D Roosevelt Senior High School (math 93% / reading 90%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,136 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $480,500 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $653,098
• List price: $625,000
• Delta: -4.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-127,963
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-145,767
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12538

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 29.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$677 /mo · $8,125/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,009
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,336

Max offer price $550,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-242	+0% $-419	+5% $-596	+10% $-773
Rent	-10% $-799	-5% $-609	+0% $-419	+5% $-229	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-260	base $-419	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-746

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,786
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,018
Total (3 units)			$4,805

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $625,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $625,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $625,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $625,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $625,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $625,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $625,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $625,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $625,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $625,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $625,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $625,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $625,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $625,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $625,000 Active 215-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,125 · $677/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,344 · $779/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,219/yr (+$102/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$8,125
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,613
• − Management: −$4,613
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$16,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,842
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Haviland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #13550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,104

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.47%
• Current HPI: 272.998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,125 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.