2525 W Gold Mine Way · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2004 6,044 sqft lot $250/sqft · 11% below area Est $364k · 11% under $85/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An incredible, expansive homesite on a Greenbelt, with Mountain Views, awaits the new owner of this beautiful home, a prime location within a very popular neighborhood, Walk out your front door and you have amazing wide open spaces, prefect for picnics, family, kids and pets, The upgraded Kitchen opens to a spacious Great room and the Large Family room is perfect for an additional sitting area, media or game room, The kitchen boasts a very large pantry with plenty of cabinet space, the black appliances includes a brand new range, The upgraded tile is in all the right traffic and living areas, the generous master suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet and plenty of wall space, the additional bedrooms are a great size for guests, an office or family, what a great home & location!

Key facts

• 6,044 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: FHA
• HOA & community: Community playground and biking/walking path; Monthly association fee of $85 covering grounds maintenance; Association enforces no visible truck/trailer/RV/boat rules

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private above-ground pool; Playground; Exterior storage; Sprinklers front and rear; Gravel/stone and grass in rear yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in electric oven; Built-in microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Ranch Elementary School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #631 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 584 students, 49% FRL); San Tan Foothills High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 824 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $203k; list at $325k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,337 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,317
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -10.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34734 N Happy Jack Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+1%)	7mo	$310,000	$236	87
2551 W Sawtooth Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+0%)	10mo	$380,000	$292	86
2662 W Sawtooth Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-4%)	4mo	$295,000	$236	84
1896 W Half Moon Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	2mo	$329,000	$245	74
34631 N Picket Post Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,195 (-8%)	7mo	$302,400	$253	72
34717 N Picket Post Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,195 (-8%)	14mo	$325,000	$272	71
2046 W Appaloosa Way	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,195 (-8%)	2mo	$365,000	$305	65
1949 W Prospector Way	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,195 (-8%)	9mo	$310,000	$259	57
3268 W Belle Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+12%)	7mo	$374,990	$258	46
35306 N Zachary Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+11%)	14mo	$365,000	$252	42
2177 W Agrarian Hills Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+13%)	11mo	$320,000	$217	39
2234 W Agrarian Hills Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+13%)	14mo	$345,000	$234	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $146,310
• Equity at exit: $292,696

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $454,626
• Equity at exit: $631,209

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $989/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $240,243

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-295	-5% $-387	+0% $-479	+5% $-571	+10% $-663
Rent	-10% $-632	-5% $-556	+0% $-479	+5% $-403	+10% $-326
Rate	-1.0pp $-316	-0.5pp $-397	base $-479	+0.5pp $-563	+1.0pp $-649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2574 W Sawtooth Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,995	$1.50	45d	1	0.12mi
34437 N Picket Post Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	3.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.15mi
2049 W Gold Mine Way San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1585	$2,085	$1.32	7d	1	0.28mi
2822 W Blue River Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,395	$1.49	45d	1	0.30mi
1911 W Half Moon Cir San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,995	$1.48	45d	1	0.38mi
33897 N Wash View Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,980	$1.15	4d	1	0.50mi
2993 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,700	$1.32	45d	1	0.51mi
3047 W Dancer Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,915	$1.32	45d	1	0.53mi
35244 N Zachary Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,275	$1.53	45d	1	0.55mi
3439 W Oil Well Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.59mi
2027 W Kenton Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,091	$1.21	23d	1	0.68mi
3569 W Morgan Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	26d	1	0.71mi
2699 W Camp River Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,975	$1.12	45d	1	0.73mi
33889 N Barbara Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1868	$1,975	$1.06	7d	1	0.82mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,955	$1.11	12d	1	0.85mi
2924 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,860	$1.05	0d	1	0.85mi
1345 W Corriente Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,795	$1.18	45d	1	0.88mi
1274 W Jamaica Hope Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1629	$1,995	$1.22	26d	1	0.89mi
1868 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1678	$1,950	$1.16	0d	1	0.89mi
1868 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1678	$1,950	$1.16	22d	1	0.89mi
3792 W Santa Cruz Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1852	$1,795	$0.97	45d	1	0.92mi
1814 W Desert Hills Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1541	$1,895	$1.23	45d	1	0.92mi
1847 W Desert Seasons Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	23d	1	0.93mi
3194 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,499	$1.45	7d	1	0.95mi
3194 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,639	$1.58	45d	1	0.95mi
2460 W Tanner Ranch Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,980	$1.30	3d	1	0.97mi
3854 W Carlos Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,775	$1.16	0d	1	0.98mi
3162 W Sunshine Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	0.98mi
33082 N Cat Hills Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,795	$1.05	20d	1	1.01mi
33082 N Cat Hills Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,695	$1.00	7d	1	1.01mi
33810 N Mercedes Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,925	$1.28	45d	1	1.01mi
33053 N North Butte Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,985	$1.31	5d	1	1.02mi
3809 W Five Mile Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,895	$1.41	7d	1	1.03mi
2029 W Allens Peak Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$1,980	$1.18	4d	1	1.06mi
1154 W Oak Tree Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	45d	1	1.07mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	0d	1	1.17mi
35623 N Seedling St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,000	$1.09	12d	1	1.17mi
3560 W Mesquite Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	13d	1	1.17mi
35155 N Thompson Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$2,320	$2.32	0d	1	1.18mi
33024 N Madison Way Dr San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	16d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $324,900 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $324,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $324,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $324,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $324,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $324,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $329,500 828-char remark
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $334,900 Active 828-char remark
12. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus $203,000 Closed 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    An incredible, expansive homesite on a Greenbelt, with Mountain Views, awaits the new owner of this beautiful home, a prime location within a very popular neighborhood, Walk out your front door and you have amazing wide open spaces, prefect for picnics, family, kids and pets, The upgraded Kitchen opens to a spacious Great room and the Large Family room is perfect for an additional sitting area, media or game room, The kitchen boasts a very large pantry with plenty of cabinet space, the black appliances includes a brand new range, The upgraded tile is in all the right traffic and living areas, the generous master suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet and plenty of wall space, the additional bedrooms are a great size for guests, an office or family, what a great home & location!

13. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus $203,000

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    An incredible, expansive homesite on a Greenbelt, with Mountain Views, awaits the new owner of this beautiful home, a prime location within a very popular neighborhood, Walk out your front door and you have amazing wide open spaces, prefect for picnics, family, kids and pets, The upgraded Kitchen opens to a spacious Great room and the Large Family room is perfect for an additional sitting area, media or game room, The kitchen boasts a very large pantry with plenty of cabinet space, the black appliances includes a brand new range, The upgraded tile is in all the right traffic and living areas, the generous master suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet and plenty of wall space, the additional bedrooms are a great size for guests, an office or family, what a great home & location!

14. 2019-03-27
    status Pending 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    An incredible, expansive homesite on a Greenbelt, with Mountain Views, awaits the new owner of this beautiful home, a prime location within a very popular neighborhood, Walk out your front door and you have amazing wide open spaces, prefect for picnics, family, kids and pets, The upgraded Kitchen opens to a spacious Great room and the Large Family room is perfect for an additional sitting area, media or game room, The kitchen boasts a very large pantry with plenty of cabinet space, the black appliances includes a brand new range, The upgraded tile is in all the right traffic and living areas, the generous master suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet and plenty of wall space, the additional bedrooms are a great size for guests, an office or family, what a great home & location!

15. 2019-02-25
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    An incredible, expansive homesite on a Greenbelt, with Mountain Views, awaits the new owner of this beautiful home, a prime location within a very popular neighborhood, Walk out your front door and you have amazing wide open spaces, prefect for picnics, family, kids and pets, The upgraded Kitchen opens to a spacious Great room and the Large Family room is perfect for an additional sitting area, media or game room, The kitchen boasts a very large pantry with plenty of cabinet space, the black appliances includes a brand new range, The upgraded tile is in all the right traffic and living areas, the generous master suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet and plenty of wall space, the additional bedrooms are a great size for guests, an office or family, what a great home & location!

16. 2019-02-18
    listed $199,900 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    An incredible, expansive homesite on a Greenbelt, with Mountain Views, awaits the new owner of this beautiful home, a prime location within a very popular neighborhood, Walk out your front door and you have amazing wide open spaces, prefect for picnics, family, kids and pets, The upgraded Kitchen opens to a spacious Great room and the Large Family room is perfect for an additional sitting area, media or game room, The kitchen boasts a very large pantry with plenty of cabinet space, the black appliances includes a brand new range, The upgraded tile is in all the right traffic and living areas, the generous master suite boasts an oversized walk-in closet and plenty of wall space, the additional bedrooms are a great size for guests, an office or family, what a great home & location!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,144 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,156/yr (+$96/mo · 116.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$989
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$11,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $324,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $329,500 ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $334,900 ARMLS
• 2019-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $203,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) $203,000 ARMLS
• 2019-03-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-02-25 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2019-02-18 Listed $199,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $989 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.