144 Goldenrod Park Rd · Nocatee, FL 32081

$411,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2016 5,227 sqft lot $305/sqft · 8% below area Est $447k · 8% under $245/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CDD BOND (DEBT) FULLY PAID OFF Well-maintained 2Br/2Ba open floor plan in Del Webb Nocatee 55+ community. Features: granite counter tops, floor tile/wet areas & carpeting/living areas, Crown molding & ceiling fans. Spacious storage in kitchen; master Bdr w/walk-in closet; kitchen pantry, linen, coat, and bathroom closets; 2nd Bdr closet. Garage: attic ladder access for added storage. Whirlpool: smooth top self-cleaning stove; microwave; side-by-side refrigerator/freezer w/water & ice dispensers; dishwasher; 2nd refrigerator in garage. Laundry w/LG Turbo H.E. (4.5-cu ft) Front-Load Washer & LG Steam (7.4-cu ft) Electric Dryer w/steam cycles (NEW-June 2025).Whirlpool central water filtration system & water softener (both owned). Screened lanai & large backyard., Low HOA fee. Onsite property management. Active Community: multiple clubs & activities; tennis, bocce & pickleball courts; indoor & outdoor pools; & spa Magnificent Anastasia Clubhouse, 24-hour gated security + more.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attic ladder access
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CROWN MOLDING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• KITCHEN PANTRY
• ATTIC LADDER ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $411k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-836 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $832 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $234k; list at $411k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,800 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.72%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,890
• List price: $411,000
• Delta: -8.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
341 Caspia Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+6%)	2mo	$425,000	$298	82
30 Goldenrod Park Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	3mo	$385,000	$276	81
20 Caspia Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	1mo	$365,000	$262	81
118 Caspia Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+6%)	4mo	$423,000	$297	80
86 Hawks Harbor Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	4mo	$408,000	$292	79
48 Fairhaven Glen Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	2mo	$390,000	$280	79
132 Cypress Bay Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	2mo	$385,000	$276	77
248 Hawks Harbor Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+7%)	1mo	$429,000	$299	73
39 Cypress Bay Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+7%)	4mo	$400,000	$278	69
28 Windy Whisper Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+4%)	5mo	$393,000	$282	68
60 Windy Whisper Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+7%)	5mo	$402,000	$280	65
138 Canopy Oak Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+6%)	2mo	$475,000	$333	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-79,245
• Equity at exit: $109,391

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-112,179
• Equity at exit: $123,793

Cash invested: $115,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,155
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,859/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,557

Max offer price $263,240

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,750
• Closing costs: $12,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Orchard Pass Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,750	$1.89	23d	1	0.36mi
443 Orchard Pass Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,800	$1.82	23d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpoolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $411,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $411,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $411,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $411,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $411,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $411,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $411,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $411,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $411,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $411,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $411,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $411,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $411,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $411,000 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    CDD BOND (DEBT) FULLY PAID OFF Well-maintained 2Br/2Ba open floor plan in Del Webb Nocatee 55+ community. Features: granite counter tops, floor tile/wet areas & carpeting/living areas, Crown molding & ceiling fans. Spacious storage in kitchen; master Bdr w/walk-in closet; kitchen pantry, linen, coat, and bathroom closets; 2nd Bdr closet. Garage: attic ladder access for added storage. Whirlpool: smooth top self-cleaning stove; microwave; side-by-side refrigerator/freezer w/water & ice dispensers; dishwasher; 2nd refrigerator in garage. Laundry w/LG Turbo H.E. (4.5-cu ft) Front-Load Washer & LG Steam (7.4-cu ft) Electric Dryer w/steam cycles (NEW-June 2025).Whirlpool central water filtration system & water softener (both owned). Screened lanai & large backyard., Low HOA fee. Onsite property management. Active Community: multiple clubs & activities; tennis, bocce & pickleball courts; indoor & outdoor pools; & spa Magnificent Anastasia Clubhouse, 24-hour gated security + more.

15. 2026-04-02
    price $418,500 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    CDD BOND (DEBT) FULLY PAID OFF Well-maintained 2Br/2Ba open floor plan in Del Webb Nocatee 55+ community. Features: granite counter tops, floor tile/wet areas & carpeting/living areas, Crown molding & ceiling fans. Spacious storage in kitchen; master Bdr w/walk-in closet; kitchen pantry, linen, coat, and bathroom closets; 2nd Bdr closet. Garage: attic ladder access for added storage. Whirlpool: smooth top self-cleaning stove; microwave; side-by-side refrigerator/freezer w/water & ice dispensers; dishwasher; 2nd refrigerator in garage. Laundry w/LG Turbo H.E. (4.5-cu ft) Front-Load Washer & LG Steam (7.4-cu ft) Electric Dryer w/steam cycles (NEW-June 2025).Whirlpool central water filtration system & water softener (both owned). Screened lanai & large backyard., Low HOA fee. Onsite property management. Active Community: multiple clubs & activities; tennis, bocce & pickleball courts; indoor & outdoor pools; & spa Magnificent Anastasia Clubhouse, 24-hour gated security + more.

16. 2026-02-16
    price $423,500 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    CDD BOND (DEBT) FULLY PAID OFF Well-maintained 2Br/2Ba open floor plan in Del Webb Nocatee 55+ community. Features: granite counter tops, floor tile/wet areas & carpeting/living areas, Crown molding & ceiling fans. Spacious storage in kitchen; master Bdr w/walk-in closet; kitchen pantry, linen, coat, and bathroom closets; 2nd Bdr closet. Garage: attic ladder access for added storage. Whirlpool: smooth top self-cleaning stove; microwave; side-by-side refrigerator/freezer w/water & ice dispensers; dishwasher; 2nd refrigerator in garage. Laundry w/LG Turbo H.E. (4.5-cu ft) Front-Load Washer & LG Steam (7.4-cu ft) Electric Dryer w/steam cycles (NEW-June 2025).Whirlpool central water filtration system & water softener (both owned). Screened lanai & large backyard., Low HOA fee. Onsite property management. Active Community: multiple clubs & activities; tennis, bocce & pickleball courts; indoor & outdoor pools; & spa Magnificent Anastasia Clubhouse, 24-hour gated security + more.

17. 2026-01-16
    listed $428,500 Active 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    CDD BOND (DEBT) FULLY PAID OFF Well-maintained 2Br/2Ba open floor plan in Del Webb Nocatee 55+ community. Features: granite counter tops, floor tile/wet areas & carpeting/living areas, Crown molding & ceiling fans. Spacious storage in kitchen; master Bdr w/walk-in closet; kitchen pantry, linen, coat, and bathroom closets; 2nd Bdr closet. Garage: attic ladder access for added storage. Whirlpool: smooth top self-cleaning stove; microwave; side-by-side refrigerator/freezer w/water & ice dispensers; dishwasher; 2nd refrigerator in garage. Laundry w/LG Turbo H.E. (4.5-cu ft) Front-Load Washer & LG Steam (7.4-cu ft) Electric Dryer w/steam cycles (NEW-June 2025).Whirlpool central water filtration system & water softener (both owned). Screened lanai & large backyard., Low HOA fee. Onsite property management. Active Community: multiple clubs & activities; tennis, bocce & pickleball courts; indoor & outdoor pools; & spa Magnificent Anastasia Clubhouse, 24-hour gated security + more.

18. 2016-08-11
    soldstatus $233,690 Sold
19. 2016-03-25
    historical
20. 2016-03-24
    listed $234,090

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,859 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,411 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,022
• − Property taxes: −$2,859
• − Insurance: −$2,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
• − Management: −$2,398
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$11,956
• Taxable loss: −$17,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,237
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+75.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $411,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $418,500 realMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $423,500 realMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $428,500 realMLS
• 2016-08-11 Sold (MLS) $233,690 realMLS
• 2016-03-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2016-03-24 Listed $234,090 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,859 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.