526 Random Rd · Baltimore, MD 21229

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · Townhouse public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1947 $133/sqft · 9% below area Est $210k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Versatile townhouse with built-in income potential! Currently set up with the upper level rented, this home offers immediate returns while the improved main level sits vacant and ready for its next chapter. Ideal for investors, house hackers, or buyers seeking flexible living options. Live in one space and offset your mortgage, or maximize rental income across both levels.

Key facts

• Built 1947
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 79% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $190k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.43%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,653
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -9.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5170 Stafford Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,450 (+2%)	2mo	$125,000	$86	89
4420 Parkton St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	1mo	$140,000	$97	69
748 Bethnal Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,408 (-1%)	2mo	$183,000	$130	65
642 Queensgate Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	0mo	$234,444	$186	65
542 Lucia Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$153	64
4516 Pen Lucy Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	2mo	$205,000	$145	63
4626 Frederick Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	2mo	$165,000	$105	59
4702 Vancouver Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+6%)	4mo	$225,000	$149	58
4865 Melbourne Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	2mo	$214,000	$174	51
40 Hillvale Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-14%)	2mo	$230,000	$188	45
48 Hillvale Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-14%)	2mo	$180,000	$147	43
38 Hillvale Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$131	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,441
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $18,208
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21229

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,137/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $206	+0% $152	+5% $98	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $77	+0% $152	+5% $226	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $200	base $152	+0.5pp $103	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5147 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,950	$1.60	5d	1	0.12mi
501 Hazlett Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1044	$1,750	$1.68	0d	8	0.20mi
114 S Rock Glen Rd Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1160	$2,350	$2.03	14d	1	0.28mi
643 S Wickham Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.0	896	$1,800	$2.01	0d	1	0.30mi
402 Colleen Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,450	$1.59	4d	11	0.32mi
131 N Bend Rd Unit 131-1B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	910	$1,225	$1.35	23d	1	0.33mi
670 Queensgate Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	6d	1	0.36mi
220 Stonecroft Rd Unit 230-D Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	23d	1	0.41mi
220 Stonecroft Rd Unit 232-I Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,295	$1.44	19d	1	0.41mi
220 Stonecroft Rd Unit 220-H Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	900	$1,245	$1.38	0d	1	0.41mi
5364 Jamestowne Ct Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–1.5	787	$1,905	$2.42	0d	15	0.41mi
565 Brisbane Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,675	$1.46	25d	1	0.42mi
19 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	45d	1	0.44mi
2 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	12d	1	0.44mi
2 S Tremont Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	25d	1	0.44mi
500 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,100	$1.43	18d	1	0.53mi
219 Atholgate Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	814	$1,500	$1.84	4d	2	0.53mi
4431 Eldone Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$2,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.56mi
4601 Pen Lucy Rd Unit 4718-F Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	879	$1,225	$1.39	3d	1	0.57mi
586 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1178	$2,100	$1.78	19d	1	0.57mi
613 S Beechfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,950	$1.81	45d	1	0.60mi
627 Lucia Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	892	$1,750	$1.96	25d	1	0.63mi
738 Yale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1346	$1,900	$1.41	25d	1	0.69mi
751 Yale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,750	$1.71	45d	1	0.72mi
201 S Symington Ave Catonsville, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$1,509	$1.91	0d	12	0.76mi
4301 Parkton St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	730	$1,550	$2.12	45d	1	0.77mi
6300 Mount Ridge Rd Unit A Catonsville, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	45d	1	0.79mi
24 Laurence Brooke Rd Catonsville, MD	4.0	3.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	14d	1	0.84mi
603 Braeside Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,400	$1.69	45d	1	0.85mi
111 Upmanor Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1224	$2,163	$1.77	45d	1	0.86mi
51 Briarwood Rd Catonsville, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	45d	1	0.88mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	45d	1	0.94mi
4520 Scarlet Oak Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.98mi
21 Holland Hill Ct Catonsville, MD	4.0	1.5	1320	$2,200	$1.67	45d	1	1.00mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	25d	1	1.01mi
3 Brucester Bridge Ct Catonsville, MD	4.0	2.5	1440	$2,700	$1.88	25d	1	1.02mi
4610 College Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	19d	1	1.03mi
117 Collins Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1617	$2,350	$1.45	45d	1	1.03mi
212 S Loudon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1310	$1,550	$1.18	45d	1	1.05mi
1 Summit Hill Ct Unit T-2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,900	$1.88	45d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    listed $199,900 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Versatile townhouse with built-in income potential! Currently set up with the upper level rented, this home offers immediate returns while the improved main level sits vacant and ready for its next chapter. Ideal for investors, house hackers, or buyers seeking flexible living options. Live in one space and offset your mortgage, or maximize rental income across both levels.

16. 2021-04-07
    soldstatus $95,000
17. 1983-07-08
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,137 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,137 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,137
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $2,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 46,679
• Household income: $60,047
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2776.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.07%
• Current HPI: 226.896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+354.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,137 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.