Plan 1609 Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$215,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,609 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $215,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $256,328.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,075 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,328
• List price: $215,995
• Delta: -15.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,609 (0%)	1mo	$220,995	$137	83
232 Harlingen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+2%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	82
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	2mo	$242,995	$149	75
692 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	9mo	$252,799	$155	64
701 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+1%)	10mo	$249,995	$153	62
30102 Dunlevy St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+12%)	6mo	$349,990	$194	54
627 Coyote Canyon Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-13%)	19mo	$269,000	$191	53
213 Harlingen Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,841 (+14%)	19mo	$299,990	$163	48
7890 Alset Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-2%)	15mo	$296,900	$188	44
1313 Wicklow St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	23mo	$309,990	$168	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $124,281
• Equity at exit: $230,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $364,158
• Equity at exit: $497,989

Cash invested: $71,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,344
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,845/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $233,642

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-68	+0% $-157	+5% $-245	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-238	+0% $-157	+5% $-76	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-92	base $-157	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,082
• Closing costs: $7,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.12mi
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,024	$1.44	0d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,995 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,995 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,995 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,995 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,995 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,995 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,995 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,995 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,995 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,995 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,995 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,995 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,995 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,995 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    price $215,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

16. 2026-03-28
    price $214,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

17. 2026-01-22
    price $213,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

18. 2025-12-17
    price $223,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

19. 2025-12-16
    price $228,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

20. 2025-12-16
    price $223,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

21. 2025-11-18
    price $228,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

22. 2025-09-16
    price $223,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

23. 2025-08-16
    price $218,995 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

24. 2025-08-05
    listed $213,995 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Open floor plan * Eat-in kitchen * Spacious great room * Downstairs laundry room * Gas range * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,358
• − Property taxes: −$3,845
• − Insurance: −$1,282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$7,457
• Taxable loss: −$6,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $-360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, roof, windows, HVAC, and landscaping, significantly impacting its current condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — No photos of exterior siding.
• Major roof — No photos of roof.
• Major windows — No photos of windows.
• Major HVAC/mechanical — No photos of HVAC/mechanical systems.
• Major landscaping — No photos of landscaping/curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting and siding repair — Improves curb appeal and home value.
• Both roof repair and replacement — Essential for structural integrity and longevity.
• Both window replacement — Enhances energy efficiency and aesthetics.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · No photos of exterior siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No photos of roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of windows.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanical · No photos of HVAC/mechanical systems.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No photos of landscaping/curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior painting and siding repair — Improves curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both roof repair and replacement — Essential for structural integrity and longevity. ↑
• Both window replacement — Enhances energy efficiency and aesthetics. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $215,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $214,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $213,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $228,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $228,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $218,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-05 Listed $213,995 Zillow