3119 Holstein Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$238,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2020 6,477 sqft lot $185/sqft · 14% below area Est $278k · 14% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3119 Holstein Drive in Forney’s desirable Windmill Farms community! This beautifully maintained home offers a bright open-concept layout designed for comfortable everyday living and easy entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen featuring ample cabinet space, sleek countertops, and a convenient dining area. The private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath and generous closet space, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a fenced backyard with plenty of room for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. Residents enjoy access to neighborhood amenities including

Key facts

• Modern kitchen
• Fenced backyard
• Outdoor gatherings

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR GATHERINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No easements listed; No accessory unit; No other structures; No horse permitted; Restrictions: None
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee ($550) covering full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Windmill Farms; Community amenities include playground and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 9 vehicles; Garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Asphalt utilities; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Preowned (built in 2020)
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Large backyard with grass; Back yard fencing; Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on level 1, including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on level 1)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; 6 total rooms; Primary bathroom on main level with granite countertops
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Stacked washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith Int (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 602 students, 58% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,667 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,694
• List price: $238,500
• Delta: -14.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3123 Angus Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-4%)	7mo	$215,000	$174	81
3106 Holstein Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-4%)	16mo	$235,000	$191	76
3013 Trinchera St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-5%)	16mo	$237,000	$194	73
2009 Misty Hollow Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+5%)	6mo	$199,900	$148	60
4319 Pyramid Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+12%)	8mo	$250,000	$173	53
2004 Brook Meadow Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+9%)	7mo	$230,000	$164	50
1939 Long Pond Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-2%)	22mo	$241,999	$191	45
2721 Baker Farm Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+13%)	3mo	$211,224	$146	44
4425 Coaldale Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+15%)	22mo	$264,000	$179	36
1918 Long Pond Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+10%)	22mo	$229,999	$163	32
2701 Baker Farm Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+10%)	22mo	$255,174	$181	32
1922 Long Pond Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	21mo	$249,999	$174	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-59,022
• Equity at exit: $35,561

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-86,020
• Equity at exit: $20,621

Cash invested: $66,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,822/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,487

Max offer price $190,667

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-203	+0% $-271	+5% $-338	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-355	+0% $-271	+5% $-186	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-210	base $-271	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,625
• Closing costs: $7,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3112 Shorthorn Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,150	$1.48	9d	1	0.06mi
3010 Saddleback Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,895	$1.23	45d	1	0.13mi
3122 Zapta Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,150	$1.28	45d	1	0.16mi
3133 Angus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,050	$1.22	45d	1	0.17mi
3088 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.20mi
3083 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	45d	1	0.21mi
3010 McCoy Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,050	$1.22	26d	1	0.21mi
3013 McCoy Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$1,895	$1.15	26d	1	0.23mi
3095 Barzona Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,850	$1.10	19d	1	0.25mi
3023 Villegas Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,875	$1.11	26d	1	0.27mi
3016 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,100	$1.25	45d	1	0.31mi
3039 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.33mi
3007 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	26d	1	0.36mi
9225 Lone Cypress Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,070	$1.29	0d	1	0.40mi
2101 Wildwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	0.54mi
2000 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,819	$1.17	45d	1	0.62mi
4620 Elderberry St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$1,850	$1.00	22d	1	0.64mi
2009 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	45d	1	0.66mi
2004 Chisolm Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,150	$1.26	20d	1	0.67mi
2015 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	22d	1	0.71mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	7d	1	0.72mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	9d	1	0.84mi
3018 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,950	$1.27	8d	1	0.84mi
6624 Charleston Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,045	$1.45	5d	1	0.88mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	26d	1	0.89mi
6309 Tropicana Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.93mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	26d	1	0.95mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.95mi
6101 Harrah Ln Unit 6101HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	26d	1	0.96mi
6103 Harrah Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.96mi
6658 Charleston Dr Unit 6658CD Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,935	$1.21	9d	1	0.96mi
5919 Sahara Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,100	$1.31	26d	1	0.97mi
6109 Harrah Ln Unit 6109HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	4d	1	0.98mi
6215 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,845	$1.15	45d	1	0.99mi
6222 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	0.99mi
6211 Old Bridge Way Unit 6211OB Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	1.00mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	26d	1	1.00mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	1.01mi
5940 Sahara Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,650	$1.56	0d	1	1.01mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	14d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,500 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,500 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,500 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,500 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,500 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,500 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,500 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,500 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,500 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,500 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,500 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,500 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $238,500 914-char remark
17. 2026-04-26
    listed $245,000 Active 914-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,822 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,822 · $569/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,360
• − Property taxes: −$6,822
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,938
• Taxable loss: −$7,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $238,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $245,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+85.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,822 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.