512 Lee St · Bedford, VA 24523

$166,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

$119/sqft · 23% below area Est $216k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Duplex fixer upper for sale. Home is being sold as is. New roof 2 yrs ago. Large lot. Great location and neighborhood.

Key facts

• Large lot
• New roof
• Listed 154 days

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-203/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Bedford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#137 in VA, #4,371 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,070 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,403
• List price: $166,000
• Delta: -23.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Lee St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	8mo	$265,000	$204	78
2 Aubrey Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,403 (+0%)	4mo	$380,900	$271	77
809 Grove St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (+8%)	8mo	$190,000	$126	69
617 F St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,417 (+1%)	18mo	$77,000	$54	65
905 Judd St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,381 (-1%)	13mo	$218,000	$158	65
1013 Madison St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-14%)	8mo	$215,000	$179	54
621 South St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-2%)	9mo	$289,900	$212	54
1217 Oakwood St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (+8%)	12mo	$230,000	$153	48
322 South St	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,204 (-14%)	9mo	$211,500	$176	46
625 South St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+9%)	11mo	$306,650	$202	42
909 Morgan St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-14%)	5mo	$253,400	$211	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-27,956
• Equity at exit: $24,751

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,645
• Equity at exit: $14,353

Cash invested: $46,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24523

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$871
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$208 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $163,549

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $40	+0% $-17	+5% $-74	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-73	+0% $-17	+5% $40	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $25	base $-17	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,500
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
620 Railroad Ave Unit 211 Bedford, VA	2.0	1.0	967	$1,225	$1.27	22d	1	0.20mi
603 2nd St Unit 6 Bedford, VA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,300	$1.41	22d	1	0.39mi
157 Villa Oak Cir Bedford, VA	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,975	$1.27	45d	1	1.20mi
175 Villa Oak Cir Bedford, VA	2.0	2.0	1550	$2,150	$1.39	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $166,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $166,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $166,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $166,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $166,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2025-12-31
   listed $166,000 Active 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   Duplex fixer upper for sale. Home is being sold as is. New roof 2 yrs ago. Large lot. Great location and neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,299
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable loss: −$3,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$726
• After-tax cash flow: $523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bedford

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #4371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bedford, VA
• City population: 21,447
• Population (ZIP): 21,447

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.68%
• Current HPI: 263.7765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Listed $166,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $318 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.