114 Slab Hill Rd · Hemlock Farms, PA 18328

$84,900

3 bd · None ba · 750 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 10,000 sqft lot $113/sqft · 38% below area Est $136k · 38% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakeview PA State Forest Cabin. 2-3 bedrooms. Kitchenett with range and refrigerator. Enclosed porch with view of lake. In great condition. PA resident and cash only. Low taxes and only $200 per year land fee. This is where you go to find an inexpensive low carrying cost Vacation / Recreation Home.

Key facts

• Low taxes
• In great condition
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• LAKEVIEW PA STATE FOREST CABIN
• IN GREAT CONDITION
• LOW TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.67%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,037
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -37.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Slab Hill Rd	0.09mi	2/— (-1)	782 (+4%)	22mo	$115,000	$147	65
121 Ness Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-4%)	9mo	$134,000	$186	64
107 Stoney Hill Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (+9%)	9mo	$165,000	$201	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $98,845
• Equity at exit: $76,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.51×
• Total profit: $249,788
• Equity at exit: $164,942

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $84,900 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Lakeview PA State Forest Cabin. 2-3 bedrooms. Kitchenett with range and refrigerator. Enclosed porch with view of lake. In great condition. PA resident and cash only. Low taxes and only $200 per year land fee. This is where you go to find an inexpensive low carrying cost Vacation / Recreation Home.

18. 2026-04-10
    price $84,900

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Lakeview PA State Forest Cabin. 2-3 bedrooms. Kitchenett with range and refrigerator. Enclosed porch with view of lake. In great condition. PA resident and cash only. Low taxes and only $200 per year land fee. This is where you go to find an inexpensive low carrying cost Vacation / Recreation Home.

19. 2025-11-16
    price $89,900
20. 2025-11-16
    price $89,900
21. 2025-09-16
    price $94,900
22. 2025-09-12
    status Active
23. 2025-09-12
    price $99,000
24. 2025-08-23
    status Active
25. 2025-08-22
    historical
26. 2025-06-29
    status Active
27. 2025-06-07
    status Active
28. 2025-06-07
    price $99,000
29. 2025-02-28
    price $105,000
30. 2025-02-28
    price $105,000
31. 2025-01-25
    price $109,900
32. 2025-01-17
    price $114,900
33. 2025-01-06
    price $114,900
34. 2024-12-21
    listed $119,900 Active
35. 2024-11-04
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $9,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,183
• After-tax cash flow: $7,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires significant updates to its kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and interior to improve its condition and value. Repainting, appliance replacement, and landscaping improvements are recommended to enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major Appliances — Outdated and in disrepair
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in disrepair
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Major Hardwood flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major Paint — Chipped and outdated
• Major Windows — Old and may need replacement
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Outdated and may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Refrigerator and stove replacement — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Both Window replacement — Improves natural light and energy efficiency
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property value and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Appliances · Outdated and in disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and in disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Hardwood flooring · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Chipped and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Outdated and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Refrigerator and stove replacement — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both Window replacement — Improves natural light and energy efficiency ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property value and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-29.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $84,900 PMAR
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $84,900 PMAR
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $89,900 PWMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $89,900 PMAR
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $94,900 PWMLS
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $99,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-23 Relisted — PMAR
• 2025-08-22 Delisted — PMAR
• 2025-06-29 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-06-07 Relisted — PMAR
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $99,000 PMAR
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $105,000 PWMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $105,000 PMAR
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $109,900 PMAR
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $114,900 PWMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $114,900 PMAR
• 2024-12-21 Listed $119,900 PMAR
• 2024-11-04 Listed $119,900 PWMLS