339 N Fm 2353 · Graford, TX 76449

$389,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,242 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 2001 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional opportunity near POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE *offering two parcels* and extensive garage space. The primary residence sits on the front lot and features a well maintained double wide home. The home welcomes you with a covered front porch and a long driveway providing ample parking. Inside offers a spacious living room with stone fireplace, large windows for natural light, and neutral finishes throughout. The kitchen is designed for functionality and storage with abundant cabinetry, center island, and expansive counter space. The primary bathroom includes dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and additional storage cabinetry. Throughout the home you will find plenty of storage space. The rear patio area features a covered deck built with reinforced weight capacity and electrical already installed for a future hot tub, creating a great outdoor relaxation space. A backup propane tank is also located onsite. The primary residence includes two single garages along with a two car covered port. The second parcel includes an additional residence currently leased month to month to a tenant, creating immediate income potential. This secondary home offers three bedrooms and three bathrooms and sits separately on the rear lot, allowing privacy between the two homes while providing an excellent opportunity for rental income, guest accommodations, or extended family living. The rear property includes a four car garage and an additional 1-car covered port, all positioned on concrete foundations with garage doors. The property sits approximately 2,640 feet from a nearby boat ramp, making lake access quick and convenient. Both parcels provide an impressive amount of covered parking, garage space, and storage buildings. With two lots, two residences, income potential, extensive garages, and lake proximity, this property presents a rare opportunity for full time living, weekend retreat, or investment property near a Texas popular lake destination.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large windows
• Long driveway

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• STONE FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.4% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graford School (math 37% / reading 42%, 321 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,981 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-52,700
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-32,802
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,036/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,009

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $277	+0% $167	+5% $57	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $40	+0% $167	+5% $294	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $266	base $167	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $389,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,900 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-03-12
    listed $389,900 Active 1985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1985 chars)

    Exceptional opportunity near POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE *offering two parcels* and extensive garage space. The primary residence sits on the front lot and features a well maintained double wide home. The home welcomes you with a covered front porch and a long driveway providing ample parking. Inside offers a spacious living room with stone fireplace, large windows for natural light, and neutral finishes throughout. The kitchen is designed for functionality and storage with abundant cabinetry, center island, and expansive counter space. The primary bathroom includes dual vanities, a soaking tub, separate shower, and additional storage cabinetry. Throughout the home you will find plenty of storage space. The rear patio area features a covered deck built with reinforced weight capacity and electrical already installed for a future hot tub, creating a great outdoor relaxation space. A backup propane tank is also located onsite. The primary residence includes two single garages along with a two car covered port. The second parcel includes an additional residence currently leased month to month to a tenant, creating immediate income potential. This secondary home offers three bedrooms and three bathrooms and sits separately on the rear lot, allowing privacy between the two homes while providing an excellent opportunity for rental income, guest accommodations, or extended family living. The rear property includes a four car garage and an additional 1-car covered port, all positioned on concrete foundations with garage doors. The property sits approximately 2,640 feet from a nearby boat ramp, making lake access quick and convenient. Both parcels provide an impressive amount of covered parking, garage space, and storage buildings. With two lots, two residences, income potential, extensive garages, and lake proximity, this property presents a rare opportunity for full time living, weekend retreat, or investment property near a Texas popular lake destination.

20. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,036 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,135 · $595/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,099/yr (+$425/mo · 250.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,036
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,091
• − Management: −$3,091
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$4,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $3,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $389,900 NTREIS
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,036 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.