33 Forrest Ln · Wardsboro, VT 05345

$259,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1971 5.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Secluded three bedroom one bath contemporary being sold mostly furnished. Enter into the family room from ground level or from the one car garage with opener, up to the foyer, then up to the living room / dining room, with fireplace, kitchen, bath and master bedroom on the first floor, 2nd floor with 2 bedroom's ; A deck off the foyer and also a deck off the dining area, a private road with only a gentleman's agreement. 20 to 25 minute drive to Mt Snow & Stratton Mt. ski areas. A pellet furnace is ducted to all of the house, and the electric heat can be turned on by telephone to preheat the house before you arrive.

Key facts

• 5.55 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with capacity for 1 car
• Utilities: Dug well; 1000-gallon septic system; 100 amp electrical service; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: Gambrel architectural style; Brown exterior
• Construction: Built in 1971; Wood frame construction; Board-and-batten exterior; Shingle roof; Concrete basement with interior stairs and both interior and exterior access
• Exterior features: Country setting; Dirt and gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level; Electric stove; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level; Two additional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Wood heat available; Forced air; Wood stove; Pellet furnace
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Den on the basement level; Loft on the second level; Mudroom on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tank-style water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Newbrook Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #141 of 192 statewide, top 77%, 101 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,114 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $52,613
• Equity at exit: $152,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $167,302
• Equity at exit: $267,618

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05345

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,647/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $224,958

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-119	+0% $-193	+5% $-266	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-267	+0% $-193	+5% $-118	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-127	base $-193	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $259,000 Active
3. 2026-05-11
   historical $259,000
4. 2021-11-08
   soldstatus $235,000
5. 2021-11-02
   soldstatus $235,000 Closed 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Secluded three bedroom one bath contemporary being sold mostly furnished. Enter into the family room from ground level or from the one car garage with opener, up to the foyer, then up to the living room / dining room, with fireplace, kitchen, bath and master bedroom on the first floor, 2nd floor with 2 bedroom's ; A deck off the foyer and also a deck off the dining area, a private road with only a gentleman's agreement. 20 to 25 minute drive to Mt Snow & Stratton Mt. ski areas. A pellet furnace is ducted to all of the house, and the electric heat can be turned on by telephone to preheat the house before you arrive.

6. 2021-09-04
   historical Active with Contract 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Secluded three bedroom one bath contemporary being sold mostly furnished. Enter into the family room from ground level or from the one car garage with opener, up to the foyer, then up to the living room / dining room, with fireplace, kitchen, bath and master bedroom on the first floor, 2nd floor with 2 bedroom's ; A deck off the foyer and also a deck off the dining area, a private road with only a gentleman's agreement. 20 to 25 minute drive to Mt Snow & Stratton Mt. ski areas. A pellet furnace is ducted to all of the house, and the electric heat can be turned on by telephone to preheat the house before you arrive.

7. 2021-07-01
   listed $249,900 Active 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Secluded three bedroom one bath contemporary being sold mostly furnished. Enter into the family room from ground level or from the one car garage with opener, up to the foyer, then up to the living room / dining room, with fireplace, kitchen, bath and master bedroom on the first floor, 2nd floor with 2 bedroom's ; A deck off the foyer and also a deck off the dining area, a private road with only a gentleman's agreement. 20 to 25 minute drive to Mt Snow & Stratton Mt. ski areas. A pellet furnace is ducted to all of the house, and the electric heat can be turned on by telephone to preheat the house before you arrive.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,137/yr (+$95/mo · 43.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$2,647
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$6,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Wardsboro

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,747

Population outlook (Windham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,432 people
• By 2030: 38,472 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 33,954 · -16.0%
• By 2050: 29,774 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 22,351 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 15,961 · -60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.7) · D 69.6% · R 26.9% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: 48.1pp · 2024: 42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.7 2020: D+47.3 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+49.2 2008: D+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 344.0451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+3.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $259,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $259,000 PrimeMLS
• 2021-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $235,000 PrimeMLS
• 2021-09-04 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2021-07-01 Listed $249,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,647 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.