903 W Main St · Olney, TX 76374

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1950 10,454 sqft lot Est $152k · 9% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cute home in a very convenient location. There are three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The larger bedroom could be used as a den. There is a large utility room and large bathrooms. Close enough to walk to school. Come view this great property.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#557 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Olney ISD (town): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #150 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Olney El (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 363 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Olney ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Young County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Young County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,531 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,412
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 W Main St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,954 (0%)	1mo	$138,000	$71	100
902 W Elm St	0.11mi	3/1.5	2,044 (+5%)	4mo	$325,000	$159	82
1008 W Hamilton St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,866 (-4%)	1mo	$154,000	$83	81
1015 W Hamilton	0.19mi	3/1.0	2,022 (+4%)	4mo	$85,000	$42	78
401 S Ave. H	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,939 (-1%)	3mo	$185,000	$95	76
504 W Oak	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-2%)	6mo	$120,000	$63	74
1107 W Bloodworth	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,925 (-2%)	8mo	$115,000	$60	74
908 Elm St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,839 (-6%)	20mo	$195,000	$106	69
608 W Payne	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-12%)	5mo	$135,000	$78	62
1112 W Howard St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-12%)	18mo	$199,000	$116	43
105 W Oak St	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,232 (+14%)	8mo	$174,999	$78	40
408 S Ave. D	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,728 (-12%)	14mo	$99,800	$58	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,751
• Equity at exit: $26,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,381
• Equity at exit: $22,293

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76374

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $138,000 Active
3. 2025-09-11
   historical
4. 2025-06-15
   price $171,000
5. 2025-03-20
   listed $180,000 Active
6. 2001-04-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$860/yr (+$72/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$1,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$275
• After-tax cash flow: $1,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833630
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,813
• Composite: 44.09/100
• National rank: #2874
• State rank: #150 of 826 in TX

Livability — Olney

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #10736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olney, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,915

Population outlook (Young County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,860 people
• By 2030: 17,620 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,054 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 16,551 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 15,667 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 14,066 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Young

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -63.5pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.6 2012: R+71.5 2008: R+63.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.05%
• Current HPI: 197.3031
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $138,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $171,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2001-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · +35.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.