103 Larch Ct · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 0.47 ac lot $129/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TWO BEDROOM RANCH! NEW FLOORS, PAVED DRIVEWAY, OIL HEAT, & LAKE RIGHTS! Downsize to this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch for a great price with LOW taxes! Enjoy laminate floors, & open floor plan, & the option to finish the basement by adding another bedroom, family room, & bathroom easily! White walls & ceilings provide a contemporary vibe & blank slate. Stay cool with your wall unit air conditioning! Kitchen peninsula provides additional seating for family & friends! A large master is 20'2 x 11'4 leaving room for a seating section, office space, or treadmill or Peloton bike! Add a separate entry & wall and easily turn this into two rooms! 2nd bedroom is 11'7 x 11'3. Lower level laundry! Great yard for backyard fun w/ family! Community offers outdoor pool & several lakes!, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1

Key facts

• Full basement
• 2 car garage
• Split unit heat ac

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• SPLIT UNIT HEAT AC
• THE ROOF IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Birchwood Lake Estates with community features: pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, playground, lake, and fishing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee (listed); One-time association fee (listed); Monthly equivalent association fee (listed); Association amenities include beach access, pool, clubhouse, playground, gated entry, and security; Association fee includes snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Paved parking
• Security: Gated community; Association security included
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable and phone available
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Front door entry; Residential zoning; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asbestos shingle roof; Built with typical foundation (details not provided)
• Exterior features: Private yard with wooded areas; Back and front yard; Rain gutters; Front porch; Storm door(s); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes living spaces and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Ductless heating; Ductless cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Electric water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Delaware Valley SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $250k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $189,672 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $115,720
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $357,085
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,317/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,305

Max offer price $193,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-251	+0% $-322	+5% $-393	+10% $-464
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-397	+0% $-322	+5% $-247	+10% $-172
Rate	-1.0pp $-196	-0.5pp $-259	base $-322	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 609-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,317 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,317
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birchwood Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+208.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $250,000 PWMLS
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) $146,000 PWMLS
• 2021-07-20 Listed $149,000 PWMLS
• 2021-07-20 Listed $149,000 PWMLS
• 2019-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) $86,000 PWMLS
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) $86,000 PWMLS
• 2019-08-13 Listed $83,000 PWMLS
• 2019-08-13 Listed $83,000 PWMLS
• 2019-08-13 Listed $83,000 PWMLS
• 1998-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,317 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.