109 Moss Rd · Nolanville, TX 76559

$197,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1983 8,481 sqft lot $197/sqft · 17% above area Est $233k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away with no back neighbors and quick access to FM 439 and I-14, this updated Nolanville home offers comfort, convenience, and a little extra breathing room. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, the home includes new LVP flooring, updated vanities, and a functional layout designed for everyday living. Enjoy a formal dining area perfect for gatherings, game nights, or a flexible second living space. Whether you're commuting to nearby shopping, dining, and Fort Hood or simply looking for a move-in ready home in a convenient location, 109 Moss Rd is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• 8,481 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available and on property; Public water; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Storage; Back yard with chain link fencing; City lot, level with mature trees; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Range
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric, one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining area and separate/formal dining room; Kitchen/Family room combo and kitchen/dining combo; Pull-down attic stairs; Tub/shower; Vanity; Solid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (32.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard E Cavazos El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 607 students, 66% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $73 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,255 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.95%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,948
• List price: $197,000
• Delta: -15.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 N Main St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,008 (+1%)	9mo	$160,000	$159	65
101 E Avenue K St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+1%)	8mo	$135,000	$134	64
408 N Main St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+6%)	8mo	$150,000	$141	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,666
• Equity at exit: $57,568

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,565
• Equity at exit: $69,492

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76559

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,258/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $132,425

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-254	-5% $-310	+0% $-366	+5% $-421	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-468	-5% $-417	+0% $-366	+5% $-314	+10% $-263
Rate	-1.0pp $-266	-0.5pp $-315	base $-366	+0.5pp $-417	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 10th St Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,095	$0.85	46d	1	0.40mi
408 W St John Ave Apt A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	46d	1	0.61mi
402 Topeka Ct Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	46d	1	0.64mi
240 W Elm St Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	0.67mi
202 East Avenue H Unit H Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,550	$1.12	25d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $197,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $197,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $197,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $197,000 Active 585-char remark
18. 2018-06-28
    historical
19. 2018-05-18
    price $94,900
20. 2018-04-20
    listed $99,000 Active
21. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus
22. 1998-05-14
    soldstatus
23. 1996-07-03
    soldstatus
24. 1995-12-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,258 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$3,258
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$7,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,915
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nolanville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #4655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nolanville, TX
• City population: 6,896
• Population (ZIP): 6,896

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 170.1375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $197,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-06-28 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-05-18 Price Changed $94,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-04-20 Listed $99,000 CTXMLS
• 2015-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,258 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.