928 Van Buren Ave · Oak Grove, KY 42262

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1997 10,018 sqft lot $208/sqft · 5% above area Est $188k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 928 Van Buren, a well-maintained home offering both comfort and opportunity. This property features a functional layout with inviting living spaces, making it a great option for homeowners or investors alike. The home is currently tenant-occupied on a month-to-month lease with tenants paying $1,150 per month. This provides immediate rental income with flexibility for a future owner, whether you choose to continue leasing or occupy the property yourself. Conveniently located near local amenities and Fort Campbell, this property offers strong rental appeal in a desirable area. Whether you're looking to grow your investment portfolio or secure a home with income already in place, 928 Van Buren is a solid opportunity. Need 48 hour notice for all showings

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 26 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $149,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$187,868) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Oak Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#445 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 83 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $150k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,799 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,868
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -20.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Gail St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	796 (+11%)	6mo	$137,000	$172	56
122 Gail St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (+4%)	20mo	$160,000	$213	55
319 Atlantic Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+11%)	23mo	$170,000	$213	51
118 Gail St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (+14%)	13mo	$75,000	$91	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.88% appreciation · 0.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,135
• Equity at exit: $50,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $27,819
• Equity at exit: $66,026

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42262

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $786/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $149,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   status Active 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to 928 Van Buren, a well-maintained home offering both comfort and opportunity. This property features a functional layout with inviting living spaces, making it a great option for homeowners or investors alike. The home is currently tenant-occupied on a month-to-month lease with tenants paying $1,150 per month. This provides immediate rental income with flexibility for a future owner, whether you choose to continue leasing or occupy the property yourself. Conveniently located near local amenities and Fort Campbell, this property offers strong rental appeal in a desirable area. Whether you're looking to grow your investment portfolio or secure a home with income already in place, 928 Van Buren is a solid opportunity. Need 48 hour notice for all showings

8. 2026-02-24
   listed $164,900 Active 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to 928 Van Buren, a well-maintained home offering both comfort and opportunity. This property features a functional layout with inviting living spaces, making it a great option for homeowners or investors alike. The home is currently tenant-occupied on a month-to-month lease with tenants paying $1,150 per month. This provides immediate rental income with flexibility for a future owner, whether you choose to continue leasing or occupy the property yourself. Conveniently located near local amenities and Fort Campbell, this property offers strong rental appeal in a desirable area. Whether you're looking to grow your investment portfolio or secure a home with income already in place, 928 Van Buren is a solid opportunity. Need 48 hour notice for all showings

9. 2024-04-27
   historical $1,150
10. 2024-04-12
    listed $1,150
11. 2024-04-12
    price $1,150
12. 2024-04-10
    historical $1,150
13. 2024-04-02
    listed $1,150
14. 2016-09-22
    soldstatus $52,000 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    This home is in move-in condition. New carpet, freshly painted, deck, fenced yard. Great Buy!

15. 2016-09-22
    soldstatus $52,000

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    This home is in move-in condition. New carpet, freshly painted, deck, fenced yard. Great Buy!

16. 2016-09-20
    soldstatus $52,000
17. 2016-04-19
    listed $59,000

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    This home is in move-in condition. New carpet, freshly painted, deck, fenced yard. Great Buy!

18. 2016-04-19
    listed $59,000 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    This home is in move-in condition. New carpet, freshly painted, deck, fenced yard. Great Buy!

19. 2016-04-01
    historical
20. 2015-02-05
    listed $61,000
21. 2015-01-29
    historical
22. 2014-08-04
    listed $67,500
23. 2014-07-26
    historical
24. 2013-07-25
    listed $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $786 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 64.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$786
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Christian County
• NCES district ID: 2101150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,961
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7118
• State rank: #93 of 165 in KY

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #21938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Grove, KY
• County: Christian County · 51,080 people
• City population: 9,665
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 9,665
• Household income: $51,975
• Rent vs Own: 58.9% rent · 41.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,861 people
• By 2030: 65,808 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 60,090 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 54,561 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 45,859 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 38,310 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Polish 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+28.4 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Current HPI: 264.8628
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.03%
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+137.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $164,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-27 Rental Removed $1,150 REALTRACS
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,150 REALTRACS
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-02 Listed for Rent $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2016-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-22 Sold (MLS) $52,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-20 Sold (MLS) $52,000 HCTCBOR
• 2016-04-19 Listed $59,000 HCTCBOR
• 2016-04-19 Listed $59,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-05 Listed $61,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-29 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-04 Listed $67,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-26 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-25 Listed $69,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $786 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.