16054 W Rio Verde Ct · Surprise, AZ 85374

$300,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,627 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1999 0.27 ac lot $184/sqft · 27% below area Est $412k · 27% under $160/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful home sits on a corner lot. 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Living rm, family rm, dining rm, eat in kitchen. Good size patio and a spacious back yard. THIS HUD HOME IS SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• Spacious back yard
• Patio
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $1,921 covering grounds maintenance; Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 additional open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Desert front yard; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in master bedroom; 7 total rooms; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: El Mirage Elementary School (math 19% / reading 22%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 764 students, 80% FRL); Dysart Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #82 of 218 statewide, top 38%, 646 students, 76% FRL); Dysart High School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #139 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,433 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 41% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,404 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,143
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -27.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17709 N Somerset Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,546 (-5%)	3mo	$345,000	$223	76
16600 N 162nd Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+2%)	1mo	$318,000	$191	70
16303 W Sandia Park Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,850 (+14%)	1mo	$385,000	$208	62
17981 N Adobe Mesa Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (+5%)	2mo	$370,000	$216	60
17850 N Havasupai Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,782 (+10%)	3mo	$420,000	$236	58
17733 N Escalante Ln	0.32mi	2/1.5	1,870 (+15%)	1mo	$405,000	$217	57
17167 N Augusta Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,414 (-13%)	0mo	$334,000	$236	55
16147 N 159th Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (-3%)	3mo	$388,000	$246	54
15969 W Statler St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,734 (+7%)	0mo	$430,000	$248	52
16218 N 159th Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-10%)	1mo	$359,000	$246	46
15453 W LA Salinas Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,870 (+15%)	1mo	$510,000	$273	42
16253 N 164th Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,843 (+13%)	2mo	$453,000	$246	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,403
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-113,724
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 404
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,566

Max offer price $245,326

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-225	+0% $-309	+5% $-394	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-395	+0% $-309	+5% $-224	+10% $-138
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-233	base $-309	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15847 W Bridgewood Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,850	$1.75	44d	1	0.23mi
15893 W Arrowhead Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,700	$1.55	6d	1	0.30mi
16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,042	$2.01	2d	1	0.34mi
16723 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,600	$1.97	25d	1	0.37mi
16719 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,795	$1.36	25d	1	0.38mi
15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.39mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	25d	1	0.40mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1199	$1,750	$1.46	11d	1	0.40mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	44d	1	0.43mi
17783 N El Dorado Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1647	$2,100	$1.28	44d	1	0.48mi
15738 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,595	$1.31	24d	1	0.49mi
16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1495	$3,200	$2.14	44d	1	0.49mi
15743 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	6d	1	0.49mi
15724 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	25d	1	0.50mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	44d	1	0.57mi
16536 W Rock Springs Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$1,995	$1.41	11d	1	0.59mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	44d	1	0.62mi
16212 N 162nd Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,889	$1.44	6d	1	0.63mi
15919 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,920	$1.32	21d	1	0.64mi
15911 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1734	$1,880	$1.08	44d	1	0.64mi
17460 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,200	$1.97	44d	1	0.65mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	22d	1	0.69mi
17824 N Stone Haven Dr Unit 1546271P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	2012	$1,817	$0.90	13d	1	0.70mi
16545 N 157th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,725	$1.62	44d	1	0.71mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	19d	1	0.75mi
15943 W Central St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,895	$1.20	6d	1	0.81mi
15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,500	$1.81	44d	1	0.83mi
18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1870	$3,500	$1.87	44d	1	0.89mi
16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	25d	1	0.94mi
15306 W Eureka Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,999	$1.55	44d	1	0.96mi
17838 N Navarro Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,800	$2.45	44d	1	0.98mi
16640 N 153rd Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1597	$2,095	$1.31	25d	1	0.99mi
15285 W Melissa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,090	$1.39	44d	1	1.00mi
16215 W Desert Winds Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,800	$2.37	44d	1	1.08mi
16523 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,175	$1.34	2d	1	1.08mi
15266 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,995	$1.07	25d	1	1.09mi
15528 N 156th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,849	$1.11	5d	1	1.12mi
15160 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	25d	1	1.13mi
16926 W Nottingham Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,850	$1.29	2d	1	1.13mi
17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	11d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $300,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $300,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 189-char remark
5. 2026-04-23
   listed $300,000 Active 189-char remark
6. 2016-02-15
   historical
7. 2016-02-11
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2016-02-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-02-11 Listed $225,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,025 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.