33259 Orchard St · Covert, MI 49043

$155,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1970 8.13 ac lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on over 8 serene acres in Covert Township, this property offers a rare opportunity for those looking to restore, rebuild, or create their own vision. Originally a spacious Colonial home featuring 5 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, approximately 2,460 square feet, a four-season room, great room, dining area, and generous living spaces, the residence sustained significant fire damage in February 2025 and is being sold strictly as-is. The value is reflected in the acreage, setting, existing improvements, and potential for redevelopment. A unique opportunity to bring new life to a beautiful piece of property with room to roam.

Key facts

• Four-season room
• Dining area
• Over 8 acres

Tags

• OVER 8 ACRES
• FOUR-SEASON ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas connected
• Home design: Colonial-style single-family residence; Built in 1970
• Construction: Brick, shingle siding, and wood siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Crawl space / Michigan-style basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Wooded setting; Public water

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 11 total rooms; Bay/Bow windows; Window treatments

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($580/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Covert Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #630 of 760 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Covert Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,172 of 1,397 statewide, top 85%, 140 students, 90% FRL); Covert Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #425 of 493 statewide, top 87%, 65 students, 92% FRL); Covert High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #596 of 713 statewide, top 86%, 103 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 88% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $132,108 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $55,527
• Equity at exit: $105,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $159,224
• Equity at exit: $199,126

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49043

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,415/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $92	+0% $48	+5% $4	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $-4	+0% $48	+5% $101	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $88	base $48	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 629-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,415 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$41/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,415
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$496
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covert Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2610980
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,349
• Composite: 21.13/100
• National rank: #13687
• State rank: #630 of 760 in MI

Livability — Covert

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 27% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.83%
• Current HPI: 192.9859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-31.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-08 Listed $155,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-02-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-02-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-15 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-02-15 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $175,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $195,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $195,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $195,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $225,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $225,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,415 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.