438 Murphy St · Norton, VA 24273

$14,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 335 Days on market

Built 1960 6,969 sqft lot $10/sqft · 89% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a handy-dandy, fixer-upper? Looking for a place to build your dream home? This property was previously used as a duplex with 3 electric meter slots. Extensive demolition has been started with more to go.

Key facts

• Electric meter slots
• Duplex
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• DUPLEX
• ELECTRIC METER SLOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.6% vs local median 4.4% in Norton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#139 in VA, #4,441 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• Norton City Public School District (town): math 68% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #12 of 131 in VA (top 9%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $117 of equity ($97 loan paydown + $20 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Norton County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $12,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 251.12%
• DSCR: 12.17
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,417
• List price: $14,000
• Delta: -86.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 10th St	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,329 (-6%)	19mo	$115,000	$87	60
223 Craig St	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,620 (+14%)	2mo	$74,500	$46	54
126 5th St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,434 (+1%)	17mo	$52,000	$36	50
4635 Pierce Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (-10%)	12mo	$100,000	$78	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.25×
• Total profit: $51,957
• Equity at exit: $4,165

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.23×
• Total profit: $114,565
• Equity at exit: $5,086

Cash invested: $3,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24273

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$73
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $356/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $138

Max offer price $14,000

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $828	-5% $824	+0% $820	+5% $816	+10% $812
Rent	-10% $727	-5% $774	+0% $820	+5% $867	+10% $913
Rate	-1.0pp $827	-0.5pp $824	base $820	+0.5pp $817	+1.0pp $813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,500
• Closing costs: $420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $14,000 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,000 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,000 Active 329 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,000 Active 328 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $14,000 Active 327 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,000 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $14,000 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $14,000 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $14,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $14,000 Active 318 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,000 Active 317 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,000 Active 316 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,000 Active 315 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $15,000 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Looking for a handy-dandy, fixer-upper? Looking for a place to build your dream home? This property was previously used as a duplex with 3 electric meter slots. Extensive demolition has been started with more to go.

18. 2025-08-19
    price $17,500 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Looking for a handy-dandy, fixer-upper? Looking for a place to build your dream home? This property was previously used as a duplex with 3 electric meter slots. Extensive demolition has been started with more to go.

19. 2025-07-20
    listed $19,900 Active 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Looking for a handy-dandy, fixer-upper? Looking for a place to build your dream home? This property was previously used as a duplex with 3 electric meter slots. Extensive demolition has been started with more to go.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$784
• − Property taxes: −$356
• − Insurance: −$70
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,129
• − Management: −$1,129
• − Depreciation: −$407
• Taxable income: $10,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,457
• After-tax cash flow: $7,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norton City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102760
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 85% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,636
• Composite: 63.22/100
• National rank: #636
• State rank: #12 of 131 in VA

Livability — Norton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #4441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Norton, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,860

Population outlook (Norton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,919 people
• By 2030: 3,899 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 3,838 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 3,778 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 3,584 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 3,154 · -19.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Norton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.6) · D 27.9% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -43.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.6 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 140.9507
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $15,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $17,500 TVRMLS
• 2025-07-20 Listed $19,900 TVRMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $356 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.