1417 Buchanan Way · Celina, TX 75009

$349,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,973 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 5,489 sqft lot Est $333k · at est. $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Legacy Hills - Joplin Floorplan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner’s needs. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2896 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $304,211 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,437
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1413 Buchanan Way	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (-2%)	1mo	$336,999	$175	90
2409 Greenbelt Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (-2%)	2mo	$324,999	$169	70
2405 Greenbelt Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,822 (-8%)	0mo	$316,999	$174	68
1501 Buchanan Way	0.02mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,229 (+13%)	2mo	$365,999	$164	67
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+6%)	1mo	$352,999	$169	66
1425 Marcella Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (+9%)	1mo	$350,000	$163	64
2417 Lost Creek Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+6%)	2mo	$329,399	$158	62
1409 Bramante St	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (+9%)	1mo	$349,990	$163	62
2605 Lost Creek Way	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+6%)	2mo	$335,224	$161	60
1436 Bramante	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,193 (+11%)	1mo	$399,950	$182	57
1428 Florence Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+11%)	1mo	$404,950	$184	54
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,231 (+13%)	1mo	$417,635	$187	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-73,194
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-107,624
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2896
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,042 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,195

Max offer price $332,563

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $0	+0% $-120	+5% $-241	+10% $-362
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-241	+0% $-120	+5% $0	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-31	base $-120	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	2d	1	0.11mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,800	$1.26	21d	1	0.75mi
7592 Rawhide Rd Celina, TX	2.0	2.0	2360	$4,950	$2.10	44d	1	0.75mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	44d	1	0.93mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	44d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   listed $349,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,920
• − Management: −$2,920
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$7,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $349,999 NTREIS