8709 Pine Ct · Arbela, MI 48420

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1979 0.61 ac lot Est $142k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meticulously updated Holly Park Manufactured home (14 x 70 home with a 24 x 7 expansion and a 12 x 8 utility room added on. Most everything has been updated within the last 4 years. This includes new water heater, water softener, bladder, sump pump and piping in sump well. The bathroom features a new counter top, sinks, tub/shower combo and toilet. New washer, dryer, refrigerator, garbage disposal, sink and faucet. The bedroom has a wall mounted 55" Samsung QLED smart tv. The home also has all new carpeting and flooring thru out with fresh painting. The home has a new Trane Runtru 95% efficient furnace and the garage has a new Trane Runtru furnace along with two new garage door openers, chains and springs. The garage also features a full bath, two storage rooms and a large attic. Outside you will find a new generator shed attached to the garage with a new Westinghouse generator inside that will power the whole house and a large utility shed in the back yard that has new shingles. Both the home and garage have a metal roof that was installed about 8 years ago.

Key facts

• New water softener
• New bladder
• 12 x 8 utility room

Tags

• 24 X 7 EXPANSION
• 12 X 8 UTILITY ROOM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW WATER SOFTENER
• NEW BLADDER
• NEW SUMP PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with approximately 2.5 car capacity; Paved driveway/road access
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Built above grade with finished area of 1,244 (units recorded as square feet)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (room-level details not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Crawl space/block basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Millington Community Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #355 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meachum Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 472 students, 58% FRL); Millington Junior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #343 of 493 statewide, top 72%, 222 students, 54% FRL); Millington High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 384 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Tuscola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscola County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $102,340 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,864
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8642 Pine Ct	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,008 (-2%)	7mo	$119,000	$118	82
10304 Baker Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	960 (-7%)	4mo	$132,500	$138	80
10365 Evelyn Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	18mo	$68,000	$62	65
14482 N Bray Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (+9%)	14mo	$180,000	$160	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-23,370
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,463
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48420

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $316/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,036

Max offer price $138,167

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $30	+0% $-10	+5% $-49	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-50	+0% $-10	+5% $31	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $26	base $-10	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   remarks 694-char remark
10. 2026-06-12
    listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $316 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$919/yr (+$77/mo · 290.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$316
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millington Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,943
• Composite: 26.05/100
• National rank: #7301
• State rank: #355 of 540 in MI

Livability — Arbela

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,213

Population outlook (Tuscola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,930 people
• By 2030: 47,294 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 41,504 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 35,560 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -51.0%
• By 2100: 16,507 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+10.8 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.27%
• Current HPI: 186.7816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+210.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-11 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-06-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-04-14 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-04-11 Coming Soon $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-11 Coming Soon $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2021-01-04 Sold (MLS) $62,500 REALCOMP
• 2020-12-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-12-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-19 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2020-12-16 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-16 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-26 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-26 Sold (MLS) $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-08-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-07-09 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-07-09 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $316 · -73.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.