2230 Anders Dr · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$439,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,679 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 5,998 sqft lot $119/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Discover the epitome of modern living with this stunning Pine Floorplan, offering 2353 square feet of expertly designed space. This home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 luxurious bathrooms, ensuring comfort and style at every turn. Step inside to find elegant quartz countertops throughout, complemented by sleek tile flooring in common areas and plush carpeting in the bedrooms. Enjoy the sophisticated touch of soft-close cabinets and stylish cabinet hardware, adding a perfect blend of functionality and flair. Full 8ft tall doors throughout. In-wall pest tube system for ease of access. The home comes fully equipped with essential appliances, including a refrigerator, wa

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Soft-close cabinets
• Tall doors

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• IN-WALL PEST TUBE SYSTEM
• ESSENTIAL APPLIANCES
• TALL DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.14 acres; Living area reported by builder: 2,679 sq ft (building area total: 2,979 sq ft); Permit number: BLD2508-6723; Builder license: CBC1258254; Community feature: Playground; Directions: From Ft. Hamer Road go east on Golf Course Rd about 1.5 miles, turn right (south) onto Twin Rivers, continue about 1 mile; community on the right.
• HOA & community: HOA: Richmond American; Monthly HOA: $119 (annual fee $1,428); Association amenities: Playground, Trails; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; BB/HS internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; New construction (projected completion: 2026-06-15); Faces west
• Construction: Stone and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block/other/slab foundation; Built by Richmond American Homes (model: Pine)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front porch; Patio; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Asphalt/paved road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $439,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $758,157.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $400k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,495/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 219% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $400,399 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.22%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $758,157
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15425 Mulholland Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,565 (-4%)	4mo	$845,000	$329	75
15451 27th Ct E	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,628 (-2%)	2mo	$734,500	$279	72
15449 Mulholland Rd	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,672 (-0%)	18mo	$799,000	$299	64
15435 27th Ct E	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,559 (-4%)	11mo	$950,000	$371	64
1825 Twin Rivers Trl	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,309 (-14%)	10mo	$730,000	$316	51
15519 29th St E	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,979 (+11%)	4mo	$785,000	$264	49
15923 29th St E	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,972 (+11%)	8mo	$698,000	$235	48
1819 151st Ter E	0.44mi	4/3.0	3,003 (+12%)	13mo	$850,000	$283	47
15017 15th St E	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,832 (+6%)	4mo	$864,000	$305	46
15804 29th St E	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,868 (+7%)	16mo	$645,000	$225	39
15518 29th St E	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,987 (+12%)	11mo	$819,000	$274	38
15914 29th St E	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,288 (-15%)	16mo	$620,000	$271	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-250,994
• Equity at exit: $113,044

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-417,118
• Equity at exit: $65,552

Cash invested: $212,284 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,976
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$948 /mo · $11,372/yr
• Insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$119
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$944
• Net cashflow: $-1,807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,783

Max offer price $496,639

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,283	-5% $-1,545	+0% $-1,807	+5% $-2,069	+10% $-2,331
Rent	-10% $-2,162	-5% $-1,985	+0% $-1,807	+5% $-1,630	+10% $-1,452
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,425	-0.5pp $-1,614	base $-1,807	+0.5pp $-2,004	+1.0pp $-2,204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $189,539
• Closing costs: $22,745
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.18mi
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$7,000	$2.69	22d	1	1.27mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$3,000	$1.32	22d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $119 · $1,428/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,999 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,999 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,999 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,999 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,999 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,999 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,999 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,999 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,999 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $439,999 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,999 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,999 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,999 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,999 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $439,999
16. 2026-04-03
    price $409,999
17. 2026-03-26
    price $424,999
18. 2026-03-11
    listed $445,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,469
• − Property taxes: −$11,372
• − Insurance: −$3,791
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,315
• − Management: −$4,315
• − HOA: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$22,055
• Taxable loss: −$35,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,593
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs, including a new roof and siding, and exterior painting. Immediate action is needed to stabilize the property's condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant moss and potential water damage
• Major exterior siding — Significant moss and potential water damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Essential for structural integrity and water resistance
• Both exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and protects the exterior

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant moss and potential water damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Significant moss and potential water damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Essential for structural integrity and water resistance ↑
• Both exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and protects the exterior ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $439,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $409,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $424,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $445,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid