Afton Plan · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$263,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · SingleFamily · 468 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The one-story Afton plan greets you with a front porch entry and true foyer space with room for an entry table. Then, the design opens to the spacious gathering room and café area with a breakfast bar for additional seating. The island kitchen boasts a walk-in pantry and flanks the private owner's suite with an attached bath and walk-in closet. Added storage closets throughout the home make this a functional floorplan for everyone.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Front porch entry
• True foyer space

Tags

• FRONT PORCH ENTRY
• TRUE FOYER SPACE
• SPACIOUS GATHERING ROOM
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $263,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,432.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 468 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,973 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 468 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,432
• List price: $263,990
• Delta: -5.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26382 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,777 (0%)	1mo	$239,090	$135	83
26306 Arrowleaf Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,777 (0%)	2mo	$274,755	$155	78
26295 Arrowleaf Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	1mo	$269,040	$145	71
26307 Arrowleaf Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	0mo	$259,325	$140	71
26275 Arrowleaf Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	4mo	$288,270	$156	70
26286 Arrowleaf Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	2mo	$274,050	$148	70
26406 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-8%)	2mo	$268,420	$163	66
26294 Arrowleaf Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,642 (-8%)	2mo	$249,910	$152	64
26387 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+15%)	1mo	$264,840	$130	55
26282 Arrowleaf Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+15%)	1mo	$259,050	$127	52
26266 Arrowleaf Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+15%)	4mo	$297,660	$146	51
26410 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-15%)	2mo	$256,610	$170	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-61,683
• Equity at exit: $41,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-74,537
• Equity at exit: $24,247

Cash invested: $78,521 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,206/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,453

Max offer price $243,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-159	+0% $-256	+5% $-352	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-340	+0% $-256	+5% $-171	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-184	base $-256	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,108
• Closing costs: $8,413
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,990 Active 468 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $263,990 Active 467 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,990 Active 465 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,990 Active 464 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,990 Active 461 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,990 Active 460 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,990 Active 459 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,990 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,990 Active 455 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,990 Active 454 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,990 Active 453 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,990 Active 452 DOM
13. 2026-04-03
    price $260,990 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    The one-story Afton plan greets you with a front porch entry and true foyer space with room for an entry table. Then, the design opens to the spacious gathering room and café area with a breakfast bar for additional seating. The island kitchen boasts a walk-in pantry and flanks the private owner's suite with an attached bath and walk-in closet. Added storage closets throughout the home make this a functional floorplan for everyone.

14. 2025-03-06
    listed $258,990 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    The one-story Afton plan greets you with a front porch entry and true foyer space with room for an entry table. Then, the design opens to the spacious gathering room and café area with a breakfast bar for additional seating. The island kitchen boasts a walk-in pantry and flanks the private owner's suite with an attached bath and walk-in closet. Added storage closets throughout the home make this a functional floorplan for everyone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,709
• − Property taxes: −$4,206
• − Insurance: −$1,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$8,158
• Taxable loss: −$8,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including landscaping, exterior painting, and structural work, to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and no visible landscaping.
• Major Exterior Painting — No visible siding condition, suggesting potential wear.
• Major Exterior Roofing — No visible roof condition, suggesting potential wear.
• Major Exterior Foundation — No visible foundation condition, suggesting potential wear.
• Major Exterior Windows — No visible window condition, suggesting potential wear.
• Major Exterior Fencing — No visible fencing condition, suggesting potential wear.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and Fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety.
• Both Exterior Painting — Improves the home's appearance and value.
• Both Exterior Roofing — Ensures the home is safe and functional.
• Both Exterior Foundation — Prevents structural issues and ensures stability.
• Both Exterior Windows — Improves energy efficiency and safety.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and no visible landscaping.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior Painting · No visible siding condition, suggesting potential wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior Roofing · No visible roof condition, suggesting potential wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior Foundation · No visible foundation condition, suggesting potential wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior Windows · No visible window condition, suggesting potential wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior Fencing · No visible fencing condition, suggesting potential wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and Fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety. ↑
• Both Exterior Painting — Improves the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Exterior Roofing — Ensures the home is safe and functional. ↑
• Both Exterior Foundation — Prevents structural issues and ensures stability. ↑
• Both Exterior Windows — Improves energy efficiency and safety. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $258,990 Zillow