None · Bellefonte, AR
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,499 – $2,785
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 2.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.2/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +7.1/10.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Appreciation +4.0/10.0
- Livability +2.9/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$69,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Cute fixer-upper, features 2 bedroom 1 bath with metal roof and vinyl siding with detached metal carport on a nice tree-shaded lot. No appliances or heat and air. Selling ''as-is'' with no disclosure or termite or warranty. Seller should do their inspection prior to submitting an offer. New survey and concrete septic.
Key facts
- Metal roof
- Concrete septic
- Tree-shaded lot
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Curbs in the community
Exterior
- Parking: Detached carport (1 covered space); Has carport
- Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Septic (septic tank)
- Home design: One story; Metal roof; Vinyl and wood siding
- Construction: Crawlspace foundation
- Exterior features: Unpaved driveway; Corner lot with hardwood trees, rolling slope and wooded areas; Paved road access
Interior
- Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 11'3" x 15'3")
- Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (approx. 13'7" x 9'2" and 13'7" x 9'3")
- Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Wood
- Bathrooms: One full bathroom
- Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
- Laundry & utility: Gas water heater
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($846 rent vs $70k).
- Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 58/100 on livability (#323 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Valley Springs School District (rural): math 56% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #7 of 238 in AR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Valley Springs Elem. School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #119 of 454 statewide, top 28%, 350 students, 49% FRL); Valley Springs Middle School (math 62% / reading 56%, grade B, #13 of 201 statewide, top 7%, 235 students, 44% FRL); Valley Springs High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #6 of 292 statewide, top 2%, 267 students, 37% FRL).
- Market conditions: 443 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.21% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.47%
- Cash-on-cash
- 14.93%
- DSCR
- 1.66
- GRM
- 6.9
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 3.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.16×
- Total profit
- $3,165
- Equity at exit
- $13,828
- IRR
- 11.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.03×
- Total profit
- $20,211
- Equity at exit
- $12,059
Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arkansas
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 72601
- Home prices YoY
- -0.8%
- Active inventory
- 443
- Price-to-rent
- 6.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $846 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$367
- Tax from tax record
- −$29 /mo · $346/yr
- Insurance
- −$29
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$178
- Net cashflow
- $177
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $217 | -5% $197 | +0% $177 | +5% $157 | +10% $137 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $110 | -5% $144 | +0% $177 | +5% $210 | +10% $244 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $212 | -0.5pp $195 | base $177 | +0.5pp $159 | +1.0pp $140 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $17,475
- Closing costs
- $2,097
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 13 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-19days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $69,900 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $69,900 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $69,900 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-06-07remarks 319-char remark
-
2026-06-07$69,900 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $346 · $29/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $447 · $37/mo
- Expected delta
- +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 29.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $10,147
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,915
- − Property taxes
- −$346
- − Insurance
- −$1,147
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$812
- − Management
- −$812
- − Depreciation
- −$2,033
- Taxable income
- $1,081
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$259
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,865/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Valley Springs School District
- NCES district ID
- 0513350
- Math proficiency
- 56% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▼ -9.00%
- Median HH income
- $41,757
- Composite
- 46.57/100
- National rank
- #2424
- State rank
- #7 of 238 in AR
Livability — Bellefonte
- Score
- 58/100
- State rank
- #323
- US rank
- #21230
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Bellefonte, AR
- Population (ZIP)
- 30,180
Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 37,238 people
- By 2030
- 36,808 · -1.2%
- By 2040
- 35,597 · -4.4%
- By 2050
- 34,197 · -8.2%
- By 2075
- 30,503 · -18.1%
- By 2100
- 25,797 · -30.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (93%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 1% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 97% English-only · Spanish 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Boone
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+65.0) · D 16.7% · R 81.6% · Other 1.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -65.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+39.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.92%
- Current HPI
- 247.043
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.80%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 1 | $681B |
|
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| Food / Agriculture | 1 | $53B |
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| Retail / Energy | 1 | $22B |
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| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $12B |
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| Energy | 1 | $4B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-04 Listed $69,900 NWARMLS
Property tax history
+4.0%/yrLatest (2025): $346 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…