161 Rock Cut Rd · Shade, PA 15926

$89,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 1967 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three bedroom mobile home on 1.1 acre adjoins a stream and is on a nice wooded lot. Included is public water and sewage. There is a permanent concrete block crawl foundation and an attached screened in sunroom overlooking the stream. The home has a pitched roof, replaced vinyl siding and replacement windows and doors. The third bedroom is a stick built addition. Bonus-2 car attached garage and paved circular driveway.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Perennial gardens
• Indoor ramp

Tags

• PERENNIAL GARDENS
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• INDOOR RAMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces; Additional gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer available)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One to one-and-a-half levels; Facing and entry level not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Irregular lot; Public maintained road frontage on a city street; Accessible entrance; Private pool (no features specified)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Range hood; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary suite located downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Wood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Master bedroom on the main floor; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on the main level; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $68k (24.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shade-Central City SD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 658 in PA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cairnbrook El Sch (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #947 of 1,518 statewide, top 65%, 166 students, 100% FRL); Shade Jshs (math 47% / reading 24%, grade F, #305 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 164 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 42% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shade-Central City SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $90k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,008 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.22%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $7,570
• Equity at exit: $44,784

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $33,111
• Equity at exit: $72,777

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15926

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $737/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $68,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-96	+0% $-122	+5% $-147	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-167	+0% $-122	+5% $-76	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-99	base $-122	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-23
   listed $89,500 Active
4. 2016-08-25
   soldstatus $28,000 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This three bedroom mobile home on 1.1 acre adjoins a stream and is on a nice wooded lot. Included is public water and sewage. There is a permanent concrete block crawl foundation and an attached screened in sunroom overlooking the stream. The home has a pitched roof, replaced vinyl siding and replacement windows and doors. The third bedroom is a stick built addition. Bonus-2 car attached garage and paved circular driveway.

5. 2014-10-30
   historical 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This three bedroom mobile home on 1.1 acre adjoins a stream and is on a nice wooded lot. Included is public water and sewage. There is a permanent concrete block crawl foundation and an attached screened in sunroom overlooking the stream. The home has a pitched roof, replaced vinyl siding and replacement windows and doors. The third bedroom is a stick built addition. Bonus-2 car attached garage and paved circular driveway.

6. 2013-10-30
   listed $42,500 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This three bedroom mobile home on 1.1 acre adjoins a stream and is on a nice wooded lot. Included is public water and sewage. There is a permanent concrete block crawl foundation and an attached screened in sunroom overlooking the stream. The home has a pitched roof, replaced vinyl siding and replacement windows and doors. The third bedroom is a stick built addition. Bonus-2 car attached garage and paved circular driveway.

7. 2009-05-06
   soldstatus $40,000
8. 2009-05-05
   soldstatus $40,000
9. 2008-06-08
   listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 45.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$737
• − Insurance: −$5,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable loss: −$2,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$661
• After-tax cash flow: $-798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shade-Central City SD
• NCES district ID: 4221180
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,850
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #6340
• State rank: #411 of 658 in PA

Livability — Shade

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,474

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,318 people
• By 2030: 68,555 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,447 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 56,437 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 44,453 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 32,408 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.9 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 151.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — CSMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $89,500 CSMLS
• 2016-08-25 Sold (MLS) $28,000 CSMLS
• 2014-10-30 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2013-10-30 Listed $42,500 West Penn MLS
• 2009-05-06 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CSMLS
• 2009-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-08 Listed $44,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $737 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.