576 Holiday Acres Dr · Buchanan, TN 38256

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2001

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lakeview single family fixer-upper located in Holiday Acres Subdivision.

Key facts

• Lakeview
• Fixer-upper
• Built 2001

Tags

• LAKEVIEW
• FIXER-UPPER
• HOLIDAY ACRES SUBDIVISION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.8% in Buchanan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Henry County (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #60 of 139 in TN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakewood Elementary (math 38% / reading 30%, grade F, #351 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 505 students, 0% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 34% / reading 25%, grade F, #107 of 333 statewide, top 33%, 249 students, 0% FRL); Henry Co High School (reading 38%, 1,048 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,904 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.29%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $27,258
• Equity at exit: $62,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $81,291
• Equity at exit: $98,484

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38256

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $167	+0% $130	+5% $93	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $84	+0% $130	+5% $176	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $163	base $130	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 2026-04-02
    soldstatus $120,000
20. 1992-09-17
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 54.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 4701830
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,770
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7457
• State rank: #60 of 139 in TN

Livability — Buchanan

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,994

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,750 people
• By 2030: 31,277 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 30,064 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 28,675 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 25,767 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 22,318 · -29.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.3) · D 21.8% · R 77.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -55.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.3 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Current HPI: 264.1122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+188.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +51.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.