3822 Cherry Hill Rd · Orcutt, CA 93455

$98,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 272 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1981 6,875 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous Triplewide Home With Real Hardwood Floors! Bright Cheery Interior, Large Master Suite, Great Modern Kitchen With Room For Kitchen Table, Indoor Laundry, Wet Bar, Fireplace, Stained Glass, Secluded Backyard, All Appliances Included. Add Your Personal Touches And Call The Movers! Land May Be Purchased Thereby Eliminating Space Rent.

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• Wet bar
• Secluded back yard

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE DRIVEWAY
• WET BAR
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• SECLUDED BACK YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• HARD WOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approx. 1,584 (appraiser source)
• HOA & community: Association fee $250 monthly; Association includes common area maintenance; Community amenities: Pool, Clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Drive space; No street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-level entry (manufactured design)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pilings / pillar/post/pier foundation; Model: 304X (Pacific Living Sys)
• Exterior features: Patio (covered); Fenced yard; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Age-restricted community (adult community) — pets allowed
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s); Additional cooling (other)
• Interior features: Pantry; Cathedral ceilings; Wet bar; Free standing gas fireplace with gas jets in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (inside); Dryer included; Gas hookup for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 2.6% in Orcutt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#169 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Orcutt Union Elementary (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #414 of 1,400 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alice Shaw Elementary (511 students, 53% FRL); Lakeview Junior High (442 students, 46% FRL); Ernest Righetti High (2,494 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 30% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.84%
• DSCR: 4.02
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Devonshire	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-3%)	6mo	$410,000	$267	74
4026 Berwyn Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-3%)	10mo	$390,000	$254	72
995 N White Dove Dr #137	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-3%)	2mo	$324,000	$211	65
1126 Sunnyslope Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,728 (+9%)	9mo	$449,000	$260	63
3362 Turtle Crk	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-3%)	0mo	$545,000	$355	60
3449 Quail Mdws	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-9%)	4mo	$295,000	$205	58
954 Bluejay Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,532 (-3%)	3mo	$165,000	$108	58
967 S White Dove Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-9%)	5mo	$350,000	$243	54
3301 Turtle Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-9%)	3mo	$575,000	$399	45
804 Covey Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-9%)	4mo	$545,000	$378	43
977 S Ridge Vw	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-9%)	6mo	$340,000	$236	43
881 Greenacre	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-9%)	5mo	$590,000	$410	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $80,712
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.87×
• Total profit: $188,578
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93455

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $1,551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,619	-5% $1,585	+0% $1,551	+5% $1,517	+10% $1,484
Rent	-10% $1,303	-5% $1,427	+0% $1,551	+5% $1,675	+10% $1,799
Rate	-1.0pp $1,601	-0.5pp $1,576	base $1,551	+0.5pp $1,526	+1.0pp $1,500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1462 Woodmere Rd Santa Maria, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$3,800	$2.64	16d	1	1.08mi
3235 Orcutt Rd Orcutt, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1202	$2,695	$2.24	16d	5	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,000 Active 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 266 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,000 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 263 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,000 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 255 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 254 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 253 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 252 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 251 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,000 Active 250 DOM
18. 2025-09-22
    listed $98,000 Active
19. 2016-10-21
    soldstatus $100,000 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Fabulous Triplewide Home With Real Hardwood Floors! Bright Cheery Interior, Large Master Suite, Great Modern Kitchen With Room For Kitchen Table, Indoor Laundry, Wet Bar, Fireplace, Stained Glass, Secluded Backyard, All Appliances Included. Add Your Personal Touches And Call The Movers! Land May Be Purchased Thereby Eliminating Space Rent.

20. 2016-09-09
    listed $99,900 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Fabulous Triplewide Home With Real Hardwood Floors! Bright Cheery Interior, Large Master Suite, Great Modern Kitchen With Room For Kitchen Table, Indoor Laundry, Wet Bar, Fireplace, Stained Glass, Secluded Backyard, All Appliances Included. Add Your Personal Touches And Call The Movers! Land May Be Purchased Thereby Eliminating Space Rent.

21. 2016-09-06
    historical
22. 2016-07-14
    listed $99,000
23. 1998-08-14
    soldstatus $59,900
24. 1997-07-16
    listed $59,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,012
• − Management: −$3,012
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $18,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,398
• After-tax cash flow: $14,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orcutt Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628710
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 45.96/100
• National rank: #5530
• State rank: #414 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Orcutt

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #5508

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orcutt, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,611
• Household income: $110,661
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 765.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 24% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -729.78%
• Current HPI: 314.6499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.23%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+63.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-22 Listed $98,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2016-10-21 Sold (MLS) $100,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2016-09-09 Listed $99,900 NSBCRMLS
• 2016-09-06 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $99,000 NSBCRMLS
• 1998-08-14 Sold (MLS) $59,900 NSBCRMLS
• 1997-07-16 Listed $59,999 NSBCRMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $179 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.