1304 8th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$298,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,713 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1965 0.30 ac lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $378k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This "move in ready" home is located on an established street in the desirable Shallowater community. It sits on a spacious lot and has been completely renovated with fresh paint, lighting, fixtures, tile in showers, flooring, and recessed lighting throughout. One of the standout features of this property is the large backyard, which offers a blank canvas perfect for a future shop, extended patio, pool, or garden. The outdoor spaces include a freshly stained privacy fence and newly poured concrete for the sidewalks, driveway, and walkway to the alley. Another great feature is the additional "flex" space - perfect for an additional living room, game room, office or workout gym. For added peace of mind, the home has been pre-inspected and includes a home warranty for the new owner. It offers the best of both worlds: the quiet charm of Shallowater with a short commute into Lubbock.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Large backyard
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• FRESHLY STAINED PRIVACY FENCE
• NEWLY POURED CONCRETE
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-891 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (52.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (52.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater Int (math 71% / reading 65%, grade B+, #181 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 387 students, 39% FRL); Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,537 (52.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.82%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,992
• List price: $298,000
• Delta: -21.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $105,606
• Equity at exit: $268,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $355,793
• Equity at exit: $578,948

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$461 /mo · $5,536/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-891

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,719

Max offer price $140,537

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-723	-5% $-807	+0% $-891	+5% $-976	+10% $-1,060
Rent	-10% $-1,017	-5% $-954	+0% $-891	+5% $-829	+10% $-766
Rate	-1.0pp $-741	-0.5pp $-816	base $-891	+0.5pp $-969	+1.0pp $-1,047

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 15th St Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	15d	1	0.54mi
1408 15th St Unit B Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	15d	1	0.55mi
1403 17th St Unit 1 Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	15d	1	0.68mi
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	15d	1	0.68mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	23d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $298,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $298,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $298,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $298,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $298,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $308,000 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $308,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This "move in ready" home is located on an established street in the desirable Shallowater community. It sits on a spacious lot and has been completely renovated with fresh paint, lighting, fixtures, tile in showers, flooring, and recessed lighting throughout. One of the standout features of this property is the large backyard, which offers a blank canvas perfect for a future shop, extended patio, pool, or garden. The outdoor spaces include a freshly stained privacy fence and newly poured concrete for the sidewalks, driveway, and walkway to the alley. Another great feature is the additional "flex" space - perfect for an additional living room, game room, office or workout gym. For added peace of mind, the home has been pre-inspected and includes a home warranty for the new owner. It offers the best of both worlds: the quiet charm of Shallowater with a short commute into Lubbock.

19. 2021-06-14
    soldstatus
20. 2006-05-25
    soldstatus
21. 2006-02-21
    soldstatus
22. 2001-12-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,536 · $461/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,536 · $461/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$5,536
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$16,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,924
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $308,000 LARMLS
• 2021-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,536 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.