846 Tecumseh Dr · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot Est $243k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller hates to go, relocating to be near family. Home is only 15 years young with one and a half year old roof. As you enter this beautiful split ranch you'll love the openness of the living room with vaulted ceiling and eat-in kitchen that features a generous amount of cabinets along with a pantry and laundry closet for your convenience. Great size En-suite with walk in closet. On the other side of this lovely ranch you'll find two spacious bedrooms and one full bath. This home also has a great size backyard with a wood privacy fence and wooded area beyond the property. Home currently has some professionally installed handicap features that were installed to be easily removed if desired. Listing agent is related to the seller.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Split-bedroom layout
• New back deck

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• VAULTED FAMILY ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW BACK DECK
• PRIVATE FULL BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,200 above-grade finished area
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Beechwood Estates; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One-story; Built in 2007
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Yard fenced with wood fencing; Lot is cleared; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area adjacent to the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, including primary bathroom on the first floor; No half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Four closets; No basement; Dining area; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($216/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roby Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 446 students, 65% FRL); Bullitt Lick Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 461 students, 67% FRL); Bullitt Central High School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,459 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
834 Tecumseh Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,185 (+3%)	1mo	$235,000	$198	93
980 Tecumseh Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-5%)	2mo	$235,000	$215	83
187 Drake Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-0%)	1mo	$235,900	$206	81
365 Tecumseh Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,157 (+1%)	2mo	$267,000	$231	80
205 Tecumseh Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-5%)	2mo	$232,000	$212	69
403 Tecumseh Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-12%)	1mo	$222,900	$220	66
664 Oak Grove Blvd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,157 (+1%)	2mo	$245,000	$212	62
172 Dogwood Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+4%)	3mo	$240,000	$202	57
143 Deerfield Ct	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,088 (-5%)	1mo	$210,750	$194	57
735 Beech Grove Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+6%)	3mo	$238,000	$195	56
201 Ashley Blvd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+11%)	2mo	$280,000	$221	49
178 Wooded Oak Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	2mo	$217,500	$216	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,337
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,390
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,366/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,862

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $82	+0% $18	+5% $-46	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-56	+0% $18	+5% $92	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $75	base $18	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
388 Tecumseh Dr Shepherdsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,815	$1.51	25d	1	0.33mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL8 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	25d	1	1.22mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL1 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	17d	1	1.22mi
1701 Saltwell Springs Cir Shepherdsville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	25d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $225,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,366
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherdsville, KY
• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+773.8% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $225,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) $190,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-11-15 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-11-12 Listed $189,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-07 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-02-24 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-02-20 Listed $175,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-29 Sold (MLS) $164,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-04-28 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-04-20 Listed $161,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-04-12 Sold (MLS) $126,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-03-04 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-02-28 Listed $129,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-09-07 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2013-03-14 Listed $104,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-10-03 Listed $109,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-10-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-29 Listed $109,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-29 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-07-24 Listed $114,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-04-04 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-02-15 Listed $119,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,366 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.