17065 W Hope Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$519,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · Land · 89 Days on market

Built 2026 5,870 sqft lot $221/sqft · 12% below area Est $593k · 12% under $161/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Hudson at 17065 W Hope Drive in Paradisi! As the largest of our single-story floor plans, it's designed to impress. A welcoming foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms and the study. Continue through the hallway to find the open-concept kitchen, dining area, and great room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy Arizona's beautiful weather from your private outdoor living space. The primary suite features a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, creating a comfortable, relaxing retreat. Allen Ranches in sunny Litchfield Park, AZ offers fun and adventure with a playground, sparkling pool, basketball court, and the thoughtful design of a master-planned community. With quick access to Loop 303, you're just minutes from lush parks, Harkins Theatres, Barnes & Noble, and plenty more nearby conveniences. Additional Highlights Include: Pot and pan drawer, soft close drawers, upgraded crown molding, under cabinet lights, and 5" baseboards. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS# 7003044

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Gourmet kitchen
• Basketball court

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DEDICATED STUDY
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• NORTH FACING LOT
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (46.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sonoran Heights Middle School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 712 students, 35% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($489k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $263,895 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.76%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $593,465
• List price: $519,990
• Delta: -12.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-122,167
• Equity at exit: $158,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-196,437
• Equity at exit: $196,470

Cash invested: $145,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,727
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$650 /mo · $7,800/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$161
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-1,670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,753

Max offer price $278,373

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,310	-5% $-1,490	+0% $-1,670	+5% $-1,849	+10% $-2,029
Rent	-10% $-1,878	-5% $-1,774	+0% $-1,670	+5% $-1,566	+10% $-1,461
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,408	-0.5pp $-1,538	base $-1,670	+0.5pp $-1,805	+1.0pp $-1,942

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,998
• Closing costs: $15,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17141 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1862	$4,200	$2.26	45d	1	0.11mi
17168 W Rocklin St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$5,000	$2.50	26d	1	0.24mi
16805 W Shangri La Rd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1960	$2,500	$1.28	26d	1	0.31mi
11320 N Northfield St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2045	$3,400	$1.66	0d	1	0.40mi
16657 W Mescal St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,899	$1.19	26d	1	0.51mi
16664 W Christy Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,600	$1.36	20d	1	0.56mi
16668 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,150	$0.94	7d	1	0.58mi
16579 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,100	$0.92	26d	1	0.71mi
16576 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2270	$2,450	$1.08	26d	1	0.72mi
16453 W Yucatan Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2375	$2,295	$0.97	7d	1	0.76mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	0.94mi
12480 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,600	$1.29	20d	1	0.96mi
10960 N 162nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	16d	1	0.98mi
16198 W Hope Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	13d	1	1.06mi
16221 W Mercer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2649	$2,395	$0.90	26d	1	1.06mi
16264 W Canterbury Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1967	$2,100	$1.07	22d	1	1.07mi
17279 W Dahlia Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1972	$3,300	$1.67	14d	1	1.11mi
17484 W Sunnyslope Ln Waddell, AZ	4.0	3.0	2039	$2,255	$1.11	0d	1	1.25mi
17745 W Turquoise Ave Waddell, AZ	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,345	$1.28	4d	1	1.25mi
13103 N 174th Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	2.5	2899	$3,500	$1.21	45d	1	1.27mi
17305 W Sanna St Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	2049	$2,100	$1.02	18d	1	1.32mi
17347 W Sanna St Waddell, AZ	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,200	$1.07	45d	1	1.33mi
17829 W Palo Verde Ave Waddell, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,200	$1.37	5d	1	1.40mi
15912 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.5	3348	$2,995	$0.89	4d	1	1.41mi
15843 W Desert Mirage Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2531	$2,599	$1.03	4d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $161 · $1,932/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $519,990 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,990 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,990 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,990 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $519,990 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,990 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $519,990 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $519,990 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $519,990 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $519,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $519,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $519,990 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $519,990 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $519,990 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $519,990 1068-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to the Hudson at 17065 W Hope Drive in Paradisi! As the largest of our single-story floor plans, it's designed to impress. A welcoming foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms and the study. Continue through the hallway to find the open-concept kitchen, dining area, and great room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy Arizona's beautiful weather from your private outdoor living space. The primary suite features a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, creating a comfortable, relaxing retreat. Allen Ranches in sunny Litchfield Park, AZ offers fun and adventure with a playground, sparkling pool, basketball court, and the thoughtful design of a master-planned community. With quick access to Loop 303, you're just minutes from lush parks, Harkins Theatres, Barnes & Noble, and plenty more nearby conveniences. Additional Highlights Include: Pot and pan drawer, soft close drawers, upgraded crown molding, under cabinet lights, and 5" baseboards. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS# 7003044

16. 2026-04-21
    price $519,990 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    What's Special: Popular Plan | Gourmet Kitchen | Dedicated Study | No Rear Neighbors | North Facing Lot. New Construction - June Completion! Built by America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Hudson at 17065 W Hope Drive in Paradisi! As the largest of our single-story floor plans, it's designed to impress. A welcoming foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms and the study. Continue through the hallway to find the open-concept kitchen, dining area, and great room--perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy Arizona's beautiful weather from your private outdoor living space. The primary suite features a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, creating a comfortable, relaxing retreat. Allen Ranches in sunny Litchfield Park, AZ offers fun and adventure with a playground, sparkling pool, basketball court, and the thoughtful design of a master-planned community. With quick access to Loop 303, you're just minutes from lush parks, Harkins Theatres, Barnes & Noble, and plenty more nearby conveniences. Additional Highlights Include: Pot and pan drawer, soft close drawers, upgraded crown molding, under cabinet lights, and 5" baseboards. MLS#7003044

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $522,990 Active 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    What's Special: Popular Plan | Gourmet Kitchen | Dedicated Study | No Rear Neighbors | North Facing Lot. New Construction - June Completion! Built by America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Hudson at 17065 W Hope Drive in Paradisi! As the largest of our single-story floor plans, it's designed to impress. A welcoming foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms and the study. Continue through the hallway to find the open-concept kitchen, dining area, and great room--perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy Arizona's beautiful weather from your private outdoor living space. The primary suite features a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, creating a comfortable, relaxing retreat. Allen Ranches in sunny Litchfield Park, AZ offers fun and adventure with a playground, sparkling pool, basketball court, and the thoughtful design of a master-planned community. With quick access to Loop 303, you're just minutes from lush parks, Harkins Theatres, Barnes & Noble, and plenty more nearby conveniences. Additional Highlights Include: Pot and pan drawer, soft close drawers, upgraded crown molding, under cabinet lights, and 5" baseboards. MLS#7003044

18. 2026-03-23
    price $522,990 1068-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to the Hudson at 17065 W Hope Drive in Paradisi! As the largest of our single-story floor plans, it's designed to impress. A welcoming foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms and the study. Continue through the hallway to find the open-concept kitchen, dining area, and great room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy Arizona's beautiful weather from your private outdoor living space. The primary suite features a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, creating a comfortable, relaxing retreat. Allen Ranches in sunny Litchfield Park, AZ offers fun and adventure with a playground, sparkling pool, basketball court, and the thoughtful design of a master-planned community. With quick access to Loop 303, you're just minutes from lush parks, Harkins Theatres, Barnes & Noble, and plenty more nearby conveniences. Additional Highlights Include: Pot and pan drawer, soft close drawers, upgraded crown molding, under cabinet lights, and 5" baseboards. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS# 7003044

19. 2026-03-22
    listed $519,990 Active 1068-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to the Hudson at 17065 W Hope Drive in Paradisi! As the largest of our single-story floor plans, it's designed to impress. A welcoming foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms and the study. Continue through the hallway to find the open-concept kitchen, dining area, and great room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy Arizona's beautiful weather from your private outdoor living space. The primary suite features a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in closet, creating a comfortable, relaxing retreat. Allen Ranches in sunny Litchfield Park, AZ offers fun and adventure with a playground, sparkling pool, basketball court, and the thoughtful design of a master-planned community. With quick access to Loop 303, you're just minutes from lush parks, Harkins Theatres, Barnes & Noble, and plenty more nearby conveniences. Additional Highlights Include: Pot and pan drawer, soft close drawers, upgraded crown molding, under cabinet lights, and 5" baseboards. Photos are for representative purposes only. MLS# 7003044

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,128
• − Property taxes: −$7,800
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − HOA: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$15,127
• Taxable loss: −$29,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $519,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $519,990 ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $522,990 ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $522,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $519,990 Zillow