309 William Floyd Pkwy · Shirley, NY 11967

$449,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2003 4,792 sqft lot Est $552k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

, Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-342/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $444k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $416k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $449k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $408,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $551,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Arpage Dr E	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-1%)	2mo	$580,000	$387	78
26 Arpage Dr E	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,391 (-8%)	9mo	$520,000	$374	71
514 Neighborhood Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-8%)	2mo	$549,990	$393	69
70 Pennwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-1%)	10mo	$460,000	$307	68
19 Birchwood Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+11%)	3mo	$530,000	$316	68
74 Alcolade Dr E	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$431,000	$299	66
20 Brushwood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,592 (+5%)	11mo	$430,000	$270	63
159 Baybright Dr E	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-1%)	11mo	$585,000	$390	61
9 Brushwood Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-8%)	4mo	$495,000	$354	57
165 Lynbrook Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,520 (+0%)	10mo	$299,900	$197	54
21 Pennwood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-4%)	7mo	$530,000	$364	51
4 Allanwood Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,304 (-14%)	10mo	$499,999	$383	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-74,375
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-66,306
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$776 /mo · $9,317/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$874
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,200

Max offer price $443,972

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $99	+0% $-28	+5% $-156	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-193	+0% $-28	+5% $136	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $86	base $-28	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	0.34mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	0.68mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	5d	1	0.78mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	0d	1	0.97mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	0d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2025-05-07
   soldstatus $159,847
2. 2024-03-19
   status Pending
3. 2023-12-17
   price $449,000
4. 2023-12-13
   listed $499,999 Active
5. 2020-06-12
   soldstatus $277,500
6. 2020-05-21
   historical 82-char remark

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

7. 2020-05-21
   soldstatus $277,500 Closed 82-char remark

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

8. 2020-03-27
   status Pending 82-char remark

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

9. 2020-02-18
   status Under Contract 82-char remark

   Show marketing remark (82 chars)

   , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

10. 2019-10-23
    price $281,999 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

11. 2019-08-28
    price $290,000 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

12. 2019-08-22
    listed $312,900 New 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    , Additional information: Appearance:EXCELLENT,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

13. 2017-06-07
    soldstatus $233,000
14. 2017-05-10
    soldstatus $233,000 Closed 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Newly Built In 2003, This Custom Contemporary Features Dramatically Vaulted Ceilings, Large Open Floor Plan, Over-Sized Lr, Fdr & Large Eik W/Mobile Island & Plenty Of Storage & Pantry Space. .5 Bath. Sliders To Deck. Master En Suite On Ground Level Complete W/ Wic's & Full Bath. 2 Add'l King Size Bdrms & Full Bath. 2 Minute Drive To Beach. Full Bsmt. Large Yard., Additional information: Appearance:Good

15. 2017-04-07
    status Under Contract 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Newly Built In 2003, This Custom Contemporary Features Dramatically Vaulted Ceilings, Large Open Floor Plan, Over-Sized Lr, Fdr & Large Eik W/Mobile Island & Plenty Of Storage & Pantry Space. .5 Bath. Sliders To Deck. Master En Suite On Ground Level Complete W/ Wic's & Full Bath. 2 Add'l King Size Bdrms & Full Bath. 2 Minute Drive To Beach. Full Bsmt. Large Yard., Additional information: Appearance:Good

16. 2017-02-19
    listed $239,000 New 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Newly Built In 2003, This Custom Contemporary Features Dramatically Vaulted Ceilings, Large Open Floor Plan, Over-Sized Lr, Fdr & Large Eik W/Mobile Island & Plenty Of Storage & Pantry Space. .5 Bath. Sliders To Deck. Master En Suite On Ground Level Complete W/ Wic's & Full Bath. 2 Add'l King Size Bdrms & Full Bath. 2 Minute Drive To Beach. Full Bsmt. Large Yard., Additional information: Appearance:Good

17. 2017-02-06
    historical
18. 2017-01-13
    price $249,000
19. 2016-09-27
    price $269,000
20. 2016-08-01
    listed $249,000 New
21. 2014-05-31
    historical
22. 2013-11-15
    listed $245,000
23. 2003-10-03
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,317 · $776/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,317 · $776/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$9,317
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,998
• − Management: −$3,998
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$7,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $1,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+840.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $159,847 Public Records
• 2024-03-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-17 Price Changed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-13 Listed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $277,500 Public Records
• 2020-05-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-21 Sold (MLS) $277,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $281,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-28 Price Changed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Listed $312,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $233,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-10 Sold (MLS) $233,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-19 Listed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-13 Price Changed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-27 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-01 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-15 Listed $245,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,317 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.