416 Marietta St · Crowell, TX 79227

$12,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 1950 $12/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Originally a duplex, now opened into one residence—easily convert back if desired. Ideal investment or renovation project with partial updates already underway. One bath features a new tub and toilet; second one is bare bones. Some new windows installed, others included. New electrical mast in place (not yet connected). Partial electrical and plumbing updates completed. Situated on a corner lot with strong potential. Located a few blocks from the school and a couple of blocks from HWY 70.

Key facts

• New tub
• Corner lot
• New toilet

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW TUB
• NEW TOILET
• NEW WINDOWS
• FEW BLOCKS FROM SCHOOL
• COUPLE OF BLOCKS FROM HWY 70

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#511 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Crowell ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #917 of 1,141 in TX (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $180 of equity ($86 loan paydown + $94 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Foard County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $12,125 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 70.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 228.86%
• DSCR: 11.18
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,160
• List price: $12,500
• Delta: -58.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.17×
• Total profit: $42,611
• Equity at exit: $4,106

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.88×
• Total profit: $94,071
• Equity at exit: $5,334

Cash invested: $3,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79227

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$66
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $109

Max offer price $12,500

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,125
• Closing costs: $375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-11
   listed $12,500 Active 499-char remark

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Originally a duplex, now opened into one residence—easily convert back if desired. Ideal investment or renovation project with partial updates already underway. One bath features a new tub and toilet; second one is bare bones. Some new windows installed, others included. New electrical mast in place (not yet connected). Partial electrical and plumbing updates completed. Situated on a corner lot with strong potential. Located a few blocks from the school and a couple of blocks from HWY 70.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$700
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$62
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$364
• Taxable income: $8,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $6,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815870
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,747
• Composite: 31.83/100
• National rank: #11074
• State rank: #917 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Crowell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #511
• US rank: #10114

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crowell, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,155

Population outlook (Foard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,129 people
• By 2030: 1,083 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 1,008 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 965 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 1,012 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 1,089 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Foard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 16.9% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+52.8 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.75%
• Current HPI: 62.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $12,500 WFAOR