3411 Seneca Hollow Rd · Shawsville, VA 24087

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1999 2.00 ac lot $173/sqft · 6% below area Est $212k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come check out this private country home located in the Eastern Montgomery School District. Home has been recently updated & is move in ready. Heat Pump & Kitchen appliances were replaced in 2021. Roof was replaced in 2024. The yard features space for entertaining & gardening with a small spring in the back. The front porch is the perfect place to have dinner while unwinding from the day.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Roof
• Recently updated

Tags

• RECENTLY UPDATED
• MOVE IN READY
• HEAT PUMP
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• ROOF
• SPACE FOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Garden; Lot on approximately 2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Washer; Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Shawsville Middle (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #244 of 342 statewide, top 72%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,637 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.08%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,376
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -6.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $122,086
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $348,652
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $979/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $199,000 Active 409-char remark
19. 2023-08-04
    price $176,000
20. 2023-05-28
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $979 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$979
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shawsville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9807

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $199,000 NRVMLS
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $176,000 NRVMLS
• 2023-05-28 Listed $180,000 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $979 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.