3921 Cat Creek Rd · Bemiss, GA 31605

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1969 4.25 ac lot $122/sqft · 10% below area Est $223k · 10% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4.25 acre lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story house; Brick veneer construction
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Built as a house (single family)
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; Approximately 4.25 acres; Zoned R-10

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $185,192 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,945
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -10.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3705 Cross Creek Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+5%)	2mo	$256,900	$149	75
4192 Bowen Way	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+3%)	1mo	$295,000	$175	66
4221 Buckhead Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (-5%)	0mo	$250,000	$160	60
4145 Conway Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,834 (+12%)	2mo	$280,000	$153	60
4052 Glen Laurel Dr E	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-6%)	2mo	$269,000	$176	58
3968 W Glen Laurel Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,680 (+3%)	4mo	$260,000	$155	55
5209 N Northridge Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-6%)	4mo	$229,000	$149	53
3966 Newbury Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-7%)	4mo	$266,000	$175	52
3679 Newbury Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-11%)	0mo	$232,500	$160	49
4035 Gramercy Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+7%)	4mo	$350,000	$199	47
4031 Gramercy Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+9%)	3mo	$304,900	$171	45
4098 Gramercy Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,843 (+13%)	3mo	$317,000	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,038
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $23,024
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,249/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,564

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4001 Conway Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,000	$1.11	21d	1	0.28mi
4007 Foxridge Ln Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	21d	1	0.35mi
5026 Pearl Davis Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,200	$0.99	21d	1	0.37mi
4125 Barrington Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	44d	1	0.51mi
4141 Pebble Creek Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,295	$1.09	21d	1	0.53mi
6023 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,550	$1.03	21d	1	0.53mi
6042 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,700	$1.11	21d	1	0.53mi
4032 Case Pt Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,050	$1.23	21d	1	0.55mi
4120 Clay Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	21d	1	0.61mi
3912 Duke Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,000	$1.08	21d	1	0.63mi
4051 Gramercy Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,300	$1.30	21d	1	0.65mi
5124 Northridge Rd S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	0.65mi
3925 Glen Laurel Dr S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,850	$1.23	21d	1	0.69mi
3908 Countess Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,250	$1.17	44d	1	0.69mi
3919 Stratford Cir Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,900	$0.94	44d	1	0.76mi
3964 Crusader Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	21d	1	0.88mi
3844 Coventry Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	21d	1	0.95mi
6416 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	1.05mi
6412 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	21d	1	1.05mi
3824 Brookfield Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	1.07mi
6043 Bemiss Towns Dr Bemiss, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,675	$1.12	21d	1	1.16mi
3875 Trotters Ridge Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,700	$1.32	21d	1	1.21mi
3905 Greenridge Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,400	$1.00	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $219,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-05-11
    listed $249,900 Active 315-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,249 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,249
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bemiss

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bemiss, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 24,280
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $199,900 SGMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $219,900 SGMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $249,900 SGMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,249 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.