11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #265 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition Est $135k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks

MORE PICTURES COMING SOON!This Open Spacious floor plan has everything you will need! For Entertaining family, friends and guests! With plenty of wide open space! This 3bed 2bath home offers a great layout! also features recessed lighting, Beautiful flooring, quartz countertops, Large laundry room, tons of cabinet space, Large kitchen, walk In Pantry and MUCH MUCH MORE!!! DON'T MISS THIS GREAT OPPORTUNITY!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed per association rules
• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease $985); Association covers sewer, water, trash, and grounds maintenance; Community pool and spa (heated); Pickleball courts; Community media room; Fitness center; Coin-operated laundry; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold property; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Outdoor storage; Gravel/stone front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Skylight(s); Dual-pane windows; Accessible approach with ramp; Bathroom grab bars

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Ranch Elementary (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 716 students, 74% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dysart Unified District (4243) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $956 of equity ($761 loan paydown + $195 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.83%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,184
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-10%)	6mo	$50,000	$29	79
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #17	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	17mo	$120,000	$63	77
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #325	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	17mo	$125,000	$66	77
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #15	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	19mo	$135,000	$71	75
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #193	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,904 (0%)	23mo	$180,000	$95	72
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-12%)	5mo	$122,000	$73	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #36	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-10%)	12mo	$135,000	$79	59
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #339	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	17mo	$99,000	$59	58
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-15%)	12mo	$149,900	$92	57
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #144	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-12%)	19mo	$115,000	$68	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $45,448
• Equity at exit: $32,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $101,298
• Equity at exit: $40,356

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $919	-5% $881	+0% $843	+5% $805	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $682	-5% $762	+0% $843	+5% $923	+10% $1,003
Rate	-1.0pp $898	-0.5pp $871	base $843	+0.5pp $814	+1.0pp $785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11425 W Pinehollow Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$2,100	$1.34	1d	1	0.20mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	26d	1	0.22mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	46d	1	0.25mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	46d	1	0.27mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	46d	1	0.48mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	7d	1	0.67mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	26d	1	0.67mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	26d	1	0.89mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	26d	1	0.90mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	20d	1	0.92mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,095	$0.99	1d	1	0.92mi
11439 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,995	$1.02	46d	1	0.94mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	5d	1	0.94mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	26d	1	0.97mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	1d	1	0.99mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	46d	1	0.99mi
11175 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2455	$2,795	$1.14	26d	1	1.03mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	46d	1	1.04mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	46d	1	1.04mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	46d	1	1.08mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	24d	1	1.08mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	26d	1	1.08mi
11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$2,500	$1.28	46d	1	1.12mi
11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$2,500	$1.28	26d	1	1.12mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	46d	1	1.14mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	4d	17	1.21mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,703	$2.89	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $8,888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $7,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 17 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern mobile home is in good condition with a good layout and plenty of space. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — neutral paint can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace window treatments — new blinds or curtains can improve energy efficiency and add a fresh look
• Both update flooring in bathrooms — new flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home
• Both install smart home devices — smart home devices can increase convenience and add value for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — neutral paint can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace window treatments — new blinds or curtains can improve energy efficiency and add a fresh look ↑
• Both update flooring in bathrooms — new flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both install smart home devices — smart home devices can increase convenience and add value for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $110,000 ARMLS