109 King Lyle Rd · Scroggins, TX 75480

$299,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 0.50 ac lot $202/sqft · 29% below area Est $426k · 30% under $89/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

STUNNING LAKE CYPRESS SPRINGS COTTAGE: A PEACEFUL LAKESIDE RETREAT IN GATED KINGS COUNTRY Experience the ultimate East Texas escape in this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom cottage nestled within the prestigious Kings Country subdivision, a premier gated lakeside community on Lake Cypress Springs. Combining comfort with total reliability, this home features serene water views and a built-in Generac generator for the ultimate peace of mind. Interior Excellence & Smart Design Accessible Living: Functional single-level, split-primary floor plan designed for privacy and ease of movement. Cozy Ambience: An inviting kitchen/dining combo flows into a living area anchored by a wood-burning stove—perfect for relaxing on chilly East Texas evenings. Modern Comforts: Featuring double vanities, ceiling fans, and a full suite of appliances (refrigerator included). The Hobbyist’s Lake Home Dream Outdoor Living: Relax on the screened-in porch, designed for bug-free entertaining while taking in views of the water and towering pines. Massive Storage: A true hobbyist's setup featuring a detached garage, separate workshop, and additional storage building for all your lake toys. Modern Conveniences: Central electric HVAC, attic fan, full sprinkler system, security lighting, and gutters. Exclusive Kings Country Amenities Residents of this secure gated community enjoy premier access to: Private boat ramp & dock Elite fishing spots, tennis courts, multiple parks and playgrounds The picturesque lifestyle of Lake Cypress Springs, one of East Texas’s most desirable locations. Whether you are searching for a full-time residence or a peaceful lake community retreat, this delightful cottage offers charm and security in an unbeatable location.

Key facts

• Lake cypress springs
• Water views
• Gated kings country

Tags

• LAKE CYPRESS SPRINGS
• GATED KINGS COUNTRY
• WATER VIEWS
• BUILT-IN GENERAC GENERATOR
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 0.7% in Scroggins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,450/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.33%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,285
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -29.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 King George Rd	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,512 (+2%)	0mo	$399,900	$264	83
814 King Lake Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,270 (-14%)	10mo	$219,900	$173	60
108 King Victor Rd	0.34mi	2/2.5	1,447 (-2%)	18mo	$299,000	$207	59
708 King John Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,516 (+2%)	17mo	$305,000	$201	54
111 King James	0.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,427 (-4%)	8mo	$275,000	$193	54
207 King Victor Rd	0.42mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,503 (+2%)	17mo	$199,000	$132	50
102 King Henry Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+11%)	1mo	$150,000	$91	46
504 Kings Country Blvd Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,516 (+2%)	12mo	$339,500	$224	44
171 King Andrew Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+8%)	5mo	$395,000	$247	41
508 Kings Country Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,516 (+2%)	17mo	$339,500	$224	40
192 King Andrew Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+8%)	11mo	$295,000	$184	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $112,609
• Equity at exit: $171,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $303,730
• Equity at exit: $298,311

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $758,975 ($479/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -39.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,512/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,626

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $820	-5% $736	+0% $651	+5% $567	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $515	+0% $651	+5% $788	+10% $924
Rate	-1.0pp $802	-0.5pp $727	base $651	+0.5pp $574	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Miller Rd Scroggins, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$3,450	$2.32	139d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Kings Country subdivisionWaterbody nearby: Cypress SpringsRestrictions: Development
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financingNo second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Kings Country POA)Quarterly HOA fee ($267) with full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (2 spaces)Gravel parking
• Security: No accessibility features reported
• Utilities: Aerobic septicCo-op waterAll-weather road accessUtilities easement present
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyOne storyBuilt in 1996Property faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Wood constructionComposition roofPillar/post/pier or other foundation
• Exterior features: GuttersInterior lotSprinkler systemWater/lake viewRV/boat storageWorkshopNo fencing noted

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenGas cooktopGas rangeDouble ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 14 x 14)Second bedroom on level 1 (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric heatingSpace heaterCentral air conditioningAttic fan
• Interior features: Decorative lightingEat-in kitchenHigh-speed internet availablePantryOne living areaOne dining area3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Generator

HOA detail $89/mo · $1,068/yr

• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscapingsecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-09-20
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-09-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-09-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-09-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-08-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-08-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-08-27
    days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-08-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
19. 2026-08-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
20. 2026-08-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
21. 2026-08-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
22. 2026-08-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
23. 2026-08-20
    days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
24. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
25. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
26. 2026-08-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
27. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
28. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
36. 2026-08-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
43. 2026-07-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
44. 2026-07-27
    days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
45. 2026-07-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,512 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,959/yr (+$163/mo · 55.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,512
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $3,254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$781
• After-tax cash flow: $7,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,400–$22,200 screening

This charming lakeside cottage in Kings Country is in good condition with fresh paint and well-maintained landscaping, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mt Vernon El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle Mt Vernon Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Mt Vernon H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Scroggins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin · 10,621 people
• Population (ZIP): 1,787
• Household income: $70,935
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own

---

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Kings Country subdivisionWaterbody nearby: Cypress SpringsRestrictions: Development
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financingNo second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Kings Country POA)Quarterly HOA fee ($267) with full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (2 spaces)Gravel parking
• Security: No accessibility features reported
• Utilities: Aerobic septicCo-op waterAll-weather road accessUtilities easement present
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyOne storyBuilt in 1996Property faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Wood constructionComposition roofPillar/post/pier or other foundation
• Exterior features: GuttersInterior lotSprinkler systemWater/lake viewRV/boat storageWorkshopNo fencing noted

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenGas cooktopGas rangeDouble ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 14 x 14)Second bedroom on level 1 (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateWood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric heatingSpace heaterCentral air conditioningAttic fan
• Interior features: Decorative lightingEat-in kitchenHigh-speed internet availablePantryOne living areaOne dining area3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Generator

Price history

+121.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-29 Listed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $299,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-13 Listed $320,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $320,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $325,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $335,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $335,000 GTAR
• 2019-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-19 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2019-11-18 Listed $135,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,512 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.