506 Morning Spring Dr · East Flat Rock, NC 28731

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

My home is located in a 55 plus community in Flat Rock, NC. It is a 3 bedroom 2 full bath with attached shed very nice lg sunroom. Had a new roof in 2023, has had flooring, carpet, vinyl replaced, master bath has been remodeled, Heat pump is 2019, den with a beautiful propane fireplace, spacious living room, nice kitchen with pantry, a lot of light shinning through, carport with extra parking. Lot rent is 560 month which includes water, garbage, lawn, sewer septic, community building with dinners, cards, pool table, exercise area. Beautiful home must see.

Key facts

• Propane fireplace
• Community building
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• REMODELED MASTER BATH
• PROPANE FIREPLACE
• COMMUNITY BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in East Flat Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#536 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #64 of 178 in NC (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillandale Elementary (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #759 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 490 students, 68% FRL); Flat Rock Middle (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #222 of 475 statewide, top 49%, 706 students, 70% FRL); East Henderson High (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 965 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 46% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,534 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.42%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,680
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $41,166
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28731

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $957

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $507	-5% $471	+0% $434	+5% $398	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $375	+0% $434	+5% $494	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $467	base $434	+0.5pp $401	+1.0pp $367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Grove Hills Dr Flat Rock, NC	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,800	$1.61	16d	1	1.50mi
119 Sharons Way East Flat Rock, NC	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,100	$1.73	26d	1	1.50mi

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$63/mo · 244.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$780
• After-tax cash flow: $4,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702100
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,101
• Composite: 42.5/100
• National rank: #3206
• State rank: #64 of 178 in NC

Livability — East Flat Rock

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #19704

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Flat Rock, NC
• City population: 4,373
• Population (ZIP): 9,075

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,075 people
• By 2030: 129,690 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 139,898 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 148,298 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 163,980 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 166,962 · +34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 42.1% · R 56.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.82%
• Current HPI: 188.1389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $308 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.