605 W Miller St · Alpena, MI 49707

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

3,920 sqft lot Est $113k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that's ready for its next chapter. This property is in need of updates and will likely appeal to investors, flippers, or buyers looking to take on a renovation project. Features include a fenced-in backyard, a 2-car detached garage offering plenty of storage and workspace, and a newer furnace for added peace of mind. With some vision and elbow grease, this home has the potential to shine once again. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Fenced-in backyard
• Detached garage

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEWER FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Has basement
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Oven; Range; Washer/Dryer stacked option
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (stacked); Laundry located on main level; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($216/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Alpena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#359 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Alpena Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpena High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 1,101 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alpena Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Alpena County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alpena County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $100k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $80,811 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,808
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 W Lake St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+2%)	1mo	$155,840	$159	86
309 Dawson St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (+3%)	22mo	$115,000	$116	62
521 Walnut St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	846 (-12%)	20mo	$68,000	$80	56
1117 Ford Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (-13%)	3mo	$99,000	$118	41
1406 N 2nd Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	19mo	$125,000	$145	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-15,092
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-11,795
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49707

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 472-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 68.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$776
• − Management: −$776
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$1,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$364
• After-tax cash flow: $580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602730
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,327
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7119
• State rank: #345 of 540 in MI

Livability — Alpena

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #9205

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpena, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,050

Population outlook (Alpena County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,245 people
• By 2030: 26,142 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 23,449 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 20,729 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 15,422 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 10,723 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alpena

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.1% · R 63.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+27.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.41%
• Current HPI: 232.1238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+112.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $100,000 WWMLS
• 2007-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.