11453 Bayview Edison Rd #7 · Bay View, WA 98273

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1982

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a private corner of Bayview Mobile Home Park, this updated double-wide puts you directly across from the Padilla Bay Shore Trail, with peekaboo water views from your living room couch and dining area that you'll never get tired of waking up to. Inside, the open layout keeps things light and connected. Three bedrooms, 1.75 baths, and a kitchen and living space that flow naturally together. Everything has been updated and is move-in ready. No project list waiting for you on closing day. Step outside and the real magic starts. A generous deck looks out over a private yard with a fire pit and a shed. This is the kind of spot where you pour a coffee, watch the birds fly by, and re

Key facts

• Shed
• Generous deck
• Peekaboo water views

Tags

• PEEKABOO WATER VIEWS
• PRIVATE YARD
• GENEROUS DECK
• FIRE PIT
• SHED
• OPEN FIELD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manufactured home park approved for sale
• Financial info: Land lease payment applies; Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Bayview MHP; Park amenities include common area and RV parking; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (water included in space rent); Sewer included in space rent; Power by PSE; Electric water heater (located enclosed near back porch); Cable connected (Wave); Internet connected (Wave)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces south; Entry; Mobile home remains in place
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured house (double wide)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Patio/porch/deck; View; Dead-end street; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Bath off primary; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#281 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,590 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,464
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11453 Bayview Edison Rd #6	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	4mo	$5,025	$4	86
11453 Bayview Edison Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,142 (+8%)	7mo	$50,000	$44	81
11453 Bayview Edison Rd #36	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+12%)	16mo	$227,500	$191	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,674
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,598
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98273

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $657/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $209,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,391/yr (+$116/mo · 211.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$657
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139
• After-tax cash flow: $3,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington-Edison School District
• NCES district ID: 5300780
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,128
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #9782
• State rank: #229 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bay View

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #9698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay View, WA
• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,001
• Household income: $76,717
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -525.00%
• Current HPI: 395.3742
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.33%
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $209,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $657 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.